The 49ers have the best defense in football and the numbers back it up
Below is a table comparing the strength of their opponents by Football Outsider’s Offensive DVOA (based on data prior to this week so Thanksgiving Day games were not incorporated).
49ers vs Patriots Opponents By Offensive DVOA
| Team | Games |
Avg Opp Rank | Med Opp Rank |
Avg Opp ODVOA% | Med Opp ODVOA% |
| 49ers | 11 | 18.6 | 21 | -5.1% | -7.3% |
| Patriots |
11 | 21.7 | 27 | -9.5% | -14.5% |
The 49ers have faced opponents that have, on average, had below-average offenses, but their opponents have been noticeably better than New England’s.
On average, the 49ers have played teams ranked over three spots higher on the offensive DVOA leaderboard and have been 4.4 percent better by the metric.
Furthermore, if you think that these numbers might be skewed by one very strong or very weak opponent, the median opponents suggest the 49ers schedule has been even harder, facing opponents ranked six spots higher with 7.2 percent more efficient offenses.
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There you have it. I had a hunch, dove into the numbers, and found some pretty interesting tidbits. The 49ers defense has allowed scores at a greater rate than the Patriots, but that appears to have been caused by sloppy offensive turnovers deep in their own territory.
When you control for where offensive drives begin, the 49ers defense is doing better than New England’s against better offenses.
Even if the 49ers defense is better than the Patriots though, it does not necessarily mean their a better team. After all, the reason New England looked better on the surface was because of the 49ers offense’s struggles with turnovers.
49ers fans can champion Garoppolo’s record as a starter all they want, he remains the biggest question on San Francisco’s roster. He has to be more consistent in the postseason.
Does this mean the Niners will fair better than New England did against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens?
Who knows?
Next. 49ers: Trent Baalke draft picks finally stealing the spotlight. dark
But, if numbers never lie, Jackson is preparing to face his biggest challenge of the year against the best defense in the NFL.