San Francisco 49ers: Offseason moves that may come back to haunt them

The San Francisco 49ers have had a solid offseason overall, but one move in particular, may come back to bite them in the backside this year.

San Francisco 49ers GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan, now in season two of their tenure, are doing a tremendous job of rebuilding a once-proud franchise – the one-time gold standard of the NFL – that’s fallen on some tough times.

But, with a combination of savvy drafting, smart trades, and some solid free agent acquisitions, Lynch and Shanahan seem to have the ship pointed in the right direction, and the 49ers beginning to trend upward.

That’s not to say they haven’t had their share of misfires. Every organization, no matter how well run, does. It’s just the nature of the beast. Some guys don’t play up to their draft status, their free agent contract, or can’t seem to keep on the straight and narrow. It happens.

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They did make one move this offseason though, that very well could come back to bite them square in the butt this year. And that was deciding to let running back Carlos Hyde walk as a free agent, while lavishing what is an insane amount of money on his replacement, Jerick McKinnon.

The Cleveland Browns may have gotten themselves a steal by giving Hyde a three-year deal worth a tick under $16 million. The 49ers meanwhile, went out and dropped $36 million over four years for the fifth-year back out of Minnesota.

So, what are the 49ers giving up and more importantly, what are they getting for the roughly extra $4 million bucks a season they’re coughing up for McKinnon?

Glad you asked. In Hyde, they let go of a guy who’d played in 50 games – starting 36 of them – in his four seasons. He rushed for 2,729 yards and 21 touchdowns over those four years. Hyde also tacked on three more touchdowns on his 634 receiving yards over that same span.

He’s coming off two straight seasons where he finished a tick under 1,000 yards rushing for the year, and he posted a career high eight touchdowns in 2017, on arguably, one of the worst offenses in the league the last few years – at least, for the first 11 games.

Yes, the Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers were electric from week eleven on, but Hyde suffered through the tenures of Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly whose offensive units couldn’t find the endzone if you stuck them on the one-yard line and gave them a GPS.

So, San Francisco jettisoned a guy who gave them 3,363 yards and 24 touchdowns from scrimmage, playing in some of the worst offenses in the league for two seasons and 11 games of his four year tenure.

Still with us? Okay good.

Now, let’s look at the other side of that ledger and see what they’re getting for those extra $4 million dollars annually.

In McKinnon, they’re getting a guy who, also over a four-year span in the league, has played in 58 games, with 14 starts overall, and has rushed for 1,918 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s also tacked on another five touchdowns and 984 yards receiving.

So, they’re getting a guy who has racked up 2,902 total yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage. A guy who’s never been asked to be a team’s bellcow back before – his career high is 159 rushing attempts.

Just for a point of reference, Hyde had 214 carries in 2016 and 240 last season.

Some – like Shanahan – undoubtedly feel that McKinnon is a better fit in his West Coast scheme than Hyde. Hence, the team allowing his departure uncontested. And, this isn’t to say they’re wrong. Not at all.

This is merely to say that there will be times when the team needs to grind out the tough, gritty yards to keep the chains moving. And when a situation like that arises, when the team needs a few tough, nasty yards against a defense that doesn’t bend much, does McKinnon provide an advantage over Hyde?

San Francisco 49ers /

San Francisco 49ers

Let’s take a look at the size differential first. Hyde clocks in at six foot, 230 pounds. McKinnon stands five-foot-nine, and is a slight 205 pounds. Who is more likely to move a pile and gain those nasty, scrappy yards?

If size doesn’t impress you, let’s take a look at some situational stats from last season and play a little game of compare and contrast, shall we?

On third and fourth downs with short yardage to go last year, Hyde rushed 16 times and gained 53 yards – an average of 3.3 yards per carry. He punched in three touchdowns and picked up nine first downs. He tacked on another four first downs in that same scenario on his five receptions for 20 yards.

In that same scenario last year, McKinnon rushed three times, picked up four yards (a paltry average of 1.3 yards per carry), had one touchdown, and picked up just one first down. He added three more first downs on his three receptions for 75 total yards.

And for those thinking that Matt Breida (all five-foot-nine, 190 pounds of him) is going to be the one to move the pile and the chains, he rushed twice, racking up two whole yards, and picked up just one first down. Though he did pick up another on his one reception for 32 yards.

Overall, Hyde accounted for 66 first downs for the 49ers last season. San Francisco racked up a total of 294 first downs, rushing and receiving (we’re not counting first downs received on penalties). Which means that on his own, Hyde accounted for 22 percent of San Francisco’s offensive first down. Almost a fourth.

To compare, McKinnon tallied 44 total first downs for Minnesota last year. The Vikings had a total of 296 (non-penalty) first downs, which makes his contribution roughly, 14 percent of the team’s output.

There is no doubt that McKinnon is going to add a little sizzle and pop to San Francisco’s offense. He’ll undoubtedly blend in well with Shanahan’s system and add to it.

But, to win, especially in the playoffs, you have to be able to run the ball. You have to be able to control the clock. If anybody should know that, it’s Kyle Shanahan.

Holding a 28-3 lead over the Patriots late in the third quarter of Super Bowl LI, all Shanahan’s offense needed to do was control the clock. Keep moving the chains, keep that clock spinning. To do that, he needed a healthy ground game.