History Favors Golden State Warriors in NBA Finals
The 2014-15 Golden State Warriors may possibly go down as one of the best teams to ever play the game of basketball, and as their Thursday matchup for Game 1 of the NBA Finals quickly approaches, it would appear that luck is on their side.
Not to discredit all they’ve accomplished this season, but it would appear that luck has actually been on their side the entire year.
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Again, that’s not at all to discredit what they’ve achieved this season. THEY are the ones who played those 82 games, and THEY are the ones that won 67 of them. Stephen Curry won that MVP trophy fair and square, fellow Splash Brother Klay Thompson earned him his first All-Star bid, Draymond Green evolved from a solid role player to a starting max player, etc.
But when you really think about it, a person can only get so far with their skill. As the American Dream has proven, it takes a great deal of skill to succeed in this world, along with a willingness to take risks. What’s a little bit of risk without a little bit of luck?
Some hardcore fans of opposing teams would read this, thinking that this “luck” of which I speak refers to the fact there’s been a plethora of injuries suffered by key NBA players of competitive teams (e.g., Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Dwight Howard, Paul George, Chris Bosh, etc.), but that’s not at all the case.
Rather, this luck that I refer to goes back all the way to the inception of the league.
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The National Basketball Association can trace its lineage back all the way to 1946. It was then known as the Basketball Association of America, which would later be merged with the National Basketball League in 1949 to become the NBA. And at the head of BAA was a man named Eddie Gottlieb (a.k.a., The Mogul, or Mr. Basketball).
Some may recognize his name from the Rookie of the Year trophy. Others may know him as one of first coaches in the league’s history, head of one of the game’s flagship teams, the Philadelphia Warriors. It was under his leadership and guidance that the Warriors became the first league franchise to win a title.
On Thursday, Steve Kerr and Cleveland Cavaliers head coach David Blatt will become the first rookie coaches to meet in the Finals since 1946. As history has proven, the last time rookie coaches met in the Finals, the Warriors came out on top.
Some would think that’s a mere coincidence, just another case of apophenia. But I don’t think so. I think that, maybe, the Warriors are fated to be in this position.
It’s been nearly 70 years since the last time rookie coaches met in the Finals — 40 years since the Warriors won their last title — and since then, the Warriors have had their share of bad luck. Things changed when Joe Lacob and Peter Guber took control of the team — there was, if you will, a shift in the franchise’s luck.
They took risks that I honestly believe would have never came to pass under the old ownership. One such example is the Monta Ellis trade that brought former first overall pick, Andrew Bogut — the team’s first legit big man in a long, long time — to the Bay Area.
He suffered one of the most horrific basketball injuries I’ve ever had to see, and it’s his presence along with Shaun Livingston‘s that completely confounds me.
They also took a risk in NOT trading Thompson, which would have brought Kevin Love to Golden State. Instead, the Cavaliers took Love, and we all know how that ended up.
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The draft in itself is a huge risk, yet the Warriors somehow got their hands on a future MVP, a future All-Star that compliments the MVP perfectly, and three talented frontcourt players — one of which may come to play alongside that MVP and that All-Star for years to come, and one that has been a completely different player in the postseason.
Together, this Warriors team has broken several NBA records and matched the productivity of some of the best teams in NBA history. It’s been years in the making, but every little decision that the Warriors have made has led to this one crucial moment in time.
Their 67-win season is among the top-10 regular season records ever, topped by just five other teams. One of those teams is the 1996 Chicago Bulls team under Michael Jordan that won 72 games, a team whose efficiency numbers compare to that of this Warriors squad.
Of those other nine teams, seven of them went on to win a title.
During the regular season, the Warriors posted a point differential of +10.1, a mark that has only been matched or exceeded by seven other teams in history.
Six of those seven eventually won a title.
However, probably the most astounding statistic that encompasses just how great that this Warriors team has been comes by way of ESPN and FiveThirtyEight.com: the Warriors rank third all-time in Elo, a measure of game-by-game performance over the course of the season.
The only two teams to top them are the ’96 and ’97 Bulls. Both of which became NBA champions.
The fact that this Warriors team had all these pieces put together in such a short amount of time only to have done all these amazing, historically significant things…it’s truly unbelievable. It’s more than likely that this team will never achieve this kind of success again.
When looking at the historical context and drawing the conclusions, it’s difficult trying to convince yourself that this Warriors team has done all of these incredible things just to fall short in the Finals. They’ve been in the driver’s seat and haven’t shown any sign of letting off the gas.
In addition, fortune favors the bold, and this Warriors squad has been nothing but. Taking a page out of NBA.com writer Sekou Smith’s book, the historical karma appears to be on Golden State’s side. They now found themselves closer to a title than they’ve ever been, so don’t be surprised when the prodigy from Akron, Ohio raises the Larry O’Brien trophy high above his head when it’s all said and done.
And no guys, I’m not talking about LeBron James.