Should the 49ers Go Guard in the First Round?

At one point over the last couple years, the San Francisco 49ers were considered to have the best offensive line in football. Unfortunately because of injuries, hold outs, and other factors, the play of the offensive line has taken a hit recently.

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The 49ers are set to lose pro bowl left guard Mike Iupati to free agency in a couple of weeks. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Iupati graded out as the 14th best guard in the league. While that number may seem impressive, it’s also a bit deceiving.

Iupati’s grade is inflated by his superior run blocking ability. PFF has +18.5 run blocking grade on him, but a -7.5 pass blocking grade. Iupati is the only guard in the top 18 that has a negative pass blocking grade.

But Iupati isn’t alone in the red for pass blocking. His teammates Marcus Martin (-8.2), Daniel Kilgore (-1.2), Anthony Davis (-4.2), and Jonathan Martin (-4.3) all join him in the negatives for pass blocking. This is possibly why Colin Kaepernick was sacked a whopping 51 times this year, second only to Blake Bortles (55) who plays on a terrible Jacksonville Jaguars team.

What do all these numbers mean? Does it mean that the 49ers need to go OL in the first round of the draft?

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With how popular the NFL has become, especially in this digital age, it has almost become a cliche for people to say “X team needs to go offensive line in the draft. It’s not a sexy pick, but football is won in the trenches!” People who spout this line off regardless of the team’s situation get an eye-roll from me.

In reality, you can find good guards and centers in the second and third rounds of the draft. The only real time that it’s smart to draft an offensive lineman in the first round is if it’s a left tackle, especially if it’s at pick 15, which is the 49ers pick. And the 49ers do not need a left tackle, as Joe Staley is a stud and graded out fourth among all tackles in the NFL.

Now obviously you can pick guards and centers in the first round and they can pan out to be great players. If you’re starting a team full of pro bowlers and you have me playing right guard for you, you might want to draft a guard as soon as you can.

In terms of value, the drop off between first round guards and second/third round guards isn’t all that much. This allows teams to draft the best available player in the first round, and then still be able to grab a quality guard in the later rounds.

Now the 49ers will most likely lose Iupati to free agency, but they still have good depth without him. They will bring back their other four starters on the line, and have Martin, Dillon Farrell, Joe Looney and Brandon Thomas – who was a projected first round pick before he got injured – compete for the starting guard spot. The team will probably draft a rookie in the later rounds as well.

I’ve seen plenty of fans suggest that the 49ers need to draft a guard with their first pick. But when you look at who they have on the roster, where they’re picking, and the other needs they have on the roster such as WR and CB, then it just isn’t a smart move.