Projecting the 2015 San Francisco Giants Season

The San Francisco Giants had a relatively quiet start to the 2014 off-season, but in recent weeks, things have started to heat up for the Word Champions, as Giants general manager Brian Sabean has made five different transactions over the last four weeks. These transactions included the trading of two single-A pitchers to the Miami Marlins for third baseman Casey McGehee, re-signing Sergio Romo, Jake Peavy, and Juan Gutierrez, and most recently signing former Kansas City Royals outfielder Norichika (Nori) Aoki.

With the 2015 roster almost set, three of the biggest questions right now are: 1.) What will the Giants’ everyday starting lineup look like? 2.) What will the starting pitching rotation be? 3.) Can the Giants make the playoffs again in 2015?

The Giants certainly tried to make some big moves early on in the off-season as they attempted to eliminate any doubt about their return to the playoffs in 2015. But after being in talks for weeks with three of the top free agents in Pablo Sandoval, Jon Lester, and Yasmany Tomas, the Giants failed to sign any of them, finishing as the “runners-up” for all three players.

After losing out on the top three free agents the Giants had in mind to sign, Sabean was forced to re-examine the market, and fill in the holes the Giants were lacking in. And so far Sabean has done very well. None of the transactions he’s made have been for big name guys, but all five players Sabean has been able to acquire are very good players and do fill the Giants’ current needs.

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After Sabean’s signing of Aoki, we now have a more complete look at what the Giants’ 2015 starting lineup and defense will look like.

Defensively, the Giants are set to align like this: Aoki in left field, Angel Pagan in center field, Hunter Pence in right field, McGehee at third base, Brandon Crawford at shortstop, Joe Panik at second base, Brandon Belt at first base, and Buster Posey behind the dish.

As far as the starting lineup goes, this is where things may get slightly controversial. We know that Aoki will be the Giants’ new starting left fielder, but he could also be the Giants’ new lead-off hitter. That statement might raise some eyebrows, but here are the facts: Aoki is less injury prone than Pagan. He has played an average of 146 games over the past three seasons compared to Pagan’s average of 107 games.

Aoki has finished in the top four in the Majors for fewest strike outs per at bats the last three seasons — 10.0 at bats per strikeout in 2014 — compared to Pagan’s 6.4 at bats per strikeout. Aoki’s career on base percentage (OBP) is .353, 19 points higher than Pagan’s .334 career OBP. And lastly, Aoki might be seen as more of a threat to steal bases than Pagan is now, especially after Pagan’s leg injuries over the last two seasons. Pagan has only averaged 18 stolen bases over the last three seasons compared to Aoki’s average of 22 stolen bases.

If there is any doubt about Aoki’s speed, here’s another impressive stat that should help prove has fast he is: 108 infield singles over the last three seasons, including 40 in 2014 (second most in the majors).

So if the Giants have Aoki lead off, here’s what their starting lineup would likely shape up to be:

1.) Aoki (.285, 1 HR, 43 RBI, 17 stolen bases, .349 OBP)

2.) Pagan (.300, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 16 stolen bases, .342 OBP)

3.) Belt (.243, 12 HR, 27 RBI, .306 OBP, .449 SLG% [in only 214 at bats])

4.) Posey (.311, 22 HR, 89 RBI, .364 OBP, .490 SLG%)

5.) Pence (.277, 20 HR, 74 RBI, .332 OBP, .445 SLG%)

6.) Panik (.305, 1 HR, 18 RBI, .343 OBP, .368 SLG% [in only 269 at bats])

7.) McGehee (.287, 4 HR, 76 RBI, .355 OBP, .357 SLG%)

8.) Crawford (.246, 10 HR, 69 RBI, .324 OBP, .389 SLG%)

*2014 offensive stats in brackets

The two possible changes in that batting order that Bruce Bochy might possibly make is flip-flopping Aoki and Pagan and/or flip-flopping Panik and McGehee.

As far as the Giants’ starting pitching rotation goes, we have a bit of an idea of how it will look in 2015, thanks to a hint from Bruce Bochy:

1.) Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA, 219 strikeouts, 217.1 innings)

2.) Matt Cain (2-7, 4.18 ERA, 70 strikeouts, 90.1 innings [had season-ending surgery in July])

3.) Jake Peavy (w/ SF & BOS: 7-13, 3.45 ERA, 158 strikeouts, 202.2 innings)

4.) Tim Hudson (9-13, 3.57 ERA, 120 strikeouts. 189.1 innings)

5.) Tim Lincecum (12-9, 4.74 ERA, 134 strikeouts, 155.2 innings)

*2014 pitching stats in brackets

That’s right folks, we will see the return of Lincecum to the Giants’ starting rotation. Bochy expects Lincecum (to at least begin the season) in the starting rotation. The only way that would change, as of now, would be if the Giants were to sign another starting pitcher before Spring Training begins next month.

Now, how should we expect the Giants to finish in 2015? The expectation is that the Giants will remain competitive within their own division for the entire season. Their biggest competitor in the National League West will most likely be the San Diego Padres, who have made some huge moves of their own this off-season. But we should expect it to be a fairly tight race between the Giants, Padres, and Los Angeles Dodgers.

If the Giants can remain mostly healthy throughout the season, they have an excellent shot at making the playoffs by either winning their division, or snagging one of the two of the National League Wild Cards.

Next: Giants Mailbag: Vogelsong, Petit, Scutaro

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