We can all agree that Kyle Shanahan is, as far as X's and O's go, a great head coach. He knows the game as well as anyone. San Francisco has benefited mightily from his tenure, and the team has reached two NFC Championship games, as well as a Super Bowl under Shanahan. Sadly, his future with the team will likely be determined by his 2025 campaign as a head coach.
See, being talented and knowing the game isn't enough. Production is the only thing that matters. Despite his brilliance as a head coach, he's only 70-62 with the 49ers, and has as many winning seasons (4) as losing seasons (4). Heading into 2025, that wasn't such a bad thing. If the team struggled, many believed some minor tinkering and some strong drafts would get the 49ers back on track.
That worked, especially in the draft. Under Shanahan and GM John Lynch, they've drafted future Hall of Famer TE George Kittle, Pro Bowl standout LB Fred Warner, one of the most impressive pass rushers in the league with DE Nick Bosa, and former standout WR Deebo Samuel.
They also acquired wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, who, while not Pro Bowlers, have produced as of late.
However, they started missing or not developing key drafted talent. DT Javon Kinlaw was a waste of a first-round pick, and despite a Pro Bowl season in 2022, safety Talanoa Hufanga succumbed to injuries and declining play rather quickly. Then, of course, there was the Trey Lance trade. A move so destructive that it set the team back significantly. The team has spent the last four seasons burning through its inexpensive and good young talent and not being able to replace key departures.
Guys like Samuel are gone, and the team wasted three seasons of no first-round picks ( including Lance), not being able to properly prepare for their departures. That all spells a doom and gloom situation on its own. Not many teams maintain their playoff prowess with three straight years of no first-round talent to speak of to help bolster the squad.
Then you couple that with the Brock Purdy contract, and all of a sudden, you have a team that has no leeway, no extra give, and no more second chances. The lack of first-round picks from 2021 to 2023 and the expensive contract for Purdy have put the 49ers in a situation where, going forward, it's either win or rebuild. There aren't a lot of other options. Due to that trade, the 49ers don't have the crop of young talent to keep pulling from to replace the expensive or aging veterans.
There's now a gap. A gap that may prevent a continued string of success from era to era.
Bosa is turning 28 in October, while Kittles will be 32 in the same month. Fred Warner is turning 29 in November, while Christian McCaffrey is knocking on the door of 30. Not old by mortal men's standards, but football is a young man's game, and the older you get, the less likely you are to play at a high level. Those are just some of the key names who are aging out.
Knowing you have a lot of your cap tied up in those players, especially the money to Purdy, with the fact you haven't been able to develop top prospects over the last several seasons, and you can see why it's do or die for Shanahan (and likely Lynch). The team can't afford a second-straight losing season. Not with the talent they have, and not with the talent they're lacking.
If the team fails to make the playoffs again, a full rebuild may be needed, and if that's the case, a new head coach and GM will likely be brought in to begin the process. It'll be a scenario that will, sadly, prove that Shanahan isn't the guy the team needs. After all, he and Lynch would've bungled the turn around and giving him the keys to the car or a second go around would prove to be ill-advised.
Now, if Shanahan can get another winning season going and develop some of the lesser vaunted prospects into starters, then this whole point becomes moot. Time will tell how things play out. If the 49ers can win it all, and then things fall apart again, this all becomes moot. The only reason Shanahan would even be on the hot seat after 2025 is another losing season, coupled with poor quarterback play. That's it.
But, that is a possible scenario that we have to consider.