San Francisco Giants: Top 5 worst contracts heading into this offseason
3. Johnny Cueto (6 years, $130 million)
Giants fans are hopefully in for one of the lone bright spots of the 2019 campaign with the return of Johnny Cueto, who has been out for more than a year since undergoing Tommy John Surgery.
If Cueto looks anything like he did in his first start back, then there’s hope for this contract after all. But “if” is a loaded word.
Ranking this contract is difficult for that very reason — we have no idea what to really expect from Johnny Cueto this next month, this next year, or in the next couple of years.
The recovery from Tommy John Surgery has yielded wildly different results. Cueto could see himself go right back to form for the 2020 season or he could struggle to find himself amidst his mid-to-late thirties.
The mega-deal that the San Francisco Giants offered Johnny Cueto in 2016 yielded great results in his first year. Cueto would finish sixth in Cy Young voting, 26th in MVP voting, and would also receive an all-star nod.
He’s pitched a total of 66 games with the Giants, putting together a 29-15 record to go along with a 3.45 ERA, 372 strikeouts, 111 walks, and a WHIP of 1.219. Those numbers aren’t bad at all.
This contract has felt much worse for a number of reasons, however.
After that great initial season with the Giants, Cueto had an out in his contract following the 2017. A 4.52 ERA and an overall letdown of a year negated any possibility of him testing the free agent market.
In nine starts the following season, Cueto appeared to be back to his prior form, cruising to a 3.23 ERA with 38 strikeouts on just 11 walks. But that’s where his season would end.
Cueto’s announced Tommy John Surgery was an immediate blow to the Giants’ pitching staff. But to the front office, it was another year of the contract lost. Typical of Tommy John surgeries, the recovery time was extensive.
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Best case scenario, Johnny Cueto will get three starts this year.
By the standard numbers, Cueto’s contract hasn’t been the absolute worst thing to happen to the Giants. There’s still a chance that he’s able to find success in a full campaign next season. If that’s the case, his trade value jumps up considerably.
But the advanced numbers haven’t reflected that fans should be too confident. His FIP has been on the rise dramatically, and that’s usually an indicator that effectiveness is getting worse.
Like Posey, Cueto has two more years on his deal, making over $21 million a year each season before being met with a $22 million team option in 2022.
And also like some of the other players on this list, Cueto is facing an uphill battle in the form of making a comeback despite his age. It will certainly be a tough task for him to put together two good years above the age of 34 to entice the Giants to pick up his option.
The good news for the Giants is that the sentimentality isn’t there. They’ll gladly move on from this contract if they can get an out.
But finding suitors for this amount of money when there are so many questions moving forward will surely make things more difficult.