Oakland Raiders: 7 last-minute predictions ahead of the 2019 season
7. This will be Derek Carr’s last season with the Raiders
It’s time to be real about the $20 million quarterback that has been at the forefront of the Oakland Raiders’ successes and failures over the last few years: Derek Carr.
Carr was selected with the 36th overall pick in the 2014 Draft. He would quickly impress during the preseason and win the starting quarterback role over Matt Schaub.
Over the following two seasons, Carr showed signs of being a top-tier quarterback that the Raiders should lockdown with a long-term contract. In his second year in the NFL, Carr led the league in fourth-quarter comebacks — a staple of Carr’s peak years.
In his third season, the Carr-led Raiders fought to a 12-4 record and entered the Wild Card Round of the 2016 playoffs against the Houston Texans. The issue, as many will remember, is that Carr didn’t play that game.
In Week 16 of that season, the Raiders welcomed the Indianapolis Colts and proceeded to pounce on them, holding onto a 33-14 lead to start the fourth. In the first drive of the quarter, Carr dropped back just before midfield and surveyed his options.
He was hit from his left side and brought down by linebacker Trent Cole for the sack. As soon as he went down, Carr immediately called for the training staff to come onto the field and slumped over onto his side grabbing his right leg and screaming out.
Carr would be done for the year with a fractured fibula. It would be awful timing for a Raiders team that had a shot in the upcoming playoffs.
Statistics might not show it, but something seemed to change in Carr as soon as that sack happened. The Raiders extended him with a massive deal and he’d return in 2017, but he wasn’t the same as the quarterback from the previous season.
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He threw more picks. He had less miraculous comebacks. The magic seemed like it was gone
This past year, Carr hit his relative rock-bottom. The Raiders were not good and Carr played the role of scapegoat fresh into his second year of his new mega-deal. His numbers weren’t bad, but he was hit often and hard — brought down 51 times that season.
Derek Carr has the tools to play in the NFL, but he might be approaching the end of his rope as quarterback with the Raiders.
This upcoming season will be the last year of his fully guaranteed $19.9 million contract. It’s the last year where there are major dead money consequences for Oakland if they didn’t want to go through with him.
If the Raiders decided to cut Carr next season, it would only be a $5 million hit in dead money. That’s not bad, in a relative sense. It wouldn’t stop Oakland from kicking him to the side of the Las Vegas strip.
The unfortunate reality for Carr going into this season is that he still dawns the mask of scapegoat if — or when — everything goes wrong. It won’t be Antonio Brown’s fault. It won’t be Jon Gruden’s fault. If things go south, people will question if Carr is really the guy.
That changes the benchmark for Carr this season. Unless he has a good to great season for himself, he might be staring at a cut from the team anyways. A mediocre season won’t save him.
It’s not fair, but it’s the reality. And if the bet is on whether or not Carr is going to be spectacular next season, then I won’t hold my breath.
If things do go further south than last year — likely a result of some circus act with Brown and Gruden taking turns as ringmasters — then we might see some late-season Nathan Peterman.
That’s one way to say goodbye to Oakland.