San Francisco Giants must only trade Madison Bumgarner for right value

The San Francisco Giants will be looking to trade longtime ace pitcher Madison Bumgarner at the deadline, but they must only do so for the right price.

Madison Bumgarner has given more to the San Francisco Giants pitcher than can ever be expressed. He has helped lead the organization to three World Series titles, is one of the greatest Giants players of the past 50 years, and is absolutely beloved by the fanbase.

By all accounts, he doesn’t owe the team any more than he has given for the past 11 years. And in actuality, it appears that he won’t be giving much more to the team anyways.

Bumgarner is playing on borrowed time with the Giants. He knows it, the Giants know it, and the fans know it.

There is a slim-to-none chance that Bumgarner is pitching with the Giants past this season. In fact, he might not even last that long.

The odds are that the Giants will look to deal Bumgarner at this year’s trade deadline as he represents one of the team’s only valuable trade chips. Given his illustrious playoff career and years of pitching dominance, it’s safe to say that there will be teams interested.

Teams such as the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, and Milwaukee Brewers have all shown interest in acquiring the former All-Star pitcher. But the key part of that phrase is “former.”

Bumgarner isn’t the same pitcher he once was. Even following his brilliant outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers — a team he has faired very well against throughout his career — Bumgarner’s 2019 numbers are not nearly as good as they’ve been in the past.

His 3.83 ERA through 14 starts this season would be the worst of his career by a good margin and his 8.7 H/9 would be his highest since 2011. Still, at just 29-years-old, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about his value when looking at other numbers.

Bumgarner’s strikeout rate is the highest it’s been since 2016 and his BB/9 is down significantly from 3.0 last season to just 1.8 this year. Still, it’s fair to assume that some teams might not want to give up much for a half-year rental that’s a fraction of the pitcher he once was.

Every so often we get a glimpse of the starter that Bumgarner once was and still could be, but injuries and innings have taken their toll and it’s clear that he’s not the dominant pitcher that he used to be.

As such, the Giants should be careful that they get appropriate value for a player as beloved as Bumgarner.

Now, baseball is a business — as all sports are. Franchises must learn to put aside emotional attachment to players and do what’s best for the team. But this is an instant where approximate value might ultimately match up with emotional value.

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The Giants could always opt to retain Bumgarner until the end of the season and then look to recoup a compensatory first-round pick in next year’s draft once he signs elsewhere. As long as San Francisco were to extend a qualifying offer and another team was to sign him before next year’s draft, this would be a conceivable outcome.

Of course, the Giants could always look to match any offer from another team but it’s unlikely they do that given the state of the roster. They’re looking to rebuild and get younger — unfortunately, Bumgarner doesn’t fit that ideology.

For the Giants, it might just be worth it to recoup that compensatory pick as opposed to taking a deal that just doesn’t fit Bumgarner’s value. At least then, the team would have their pick of the litter with the selection they make rather than settling for second-tier prospects they’re not necessarily high on.

Fortunately, it appears that team president Farhan Zaidi has this exact same philosophy. A recent report from Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic indicates that the Giants “will get the value they are seeking or they won’t move [Bumgarner].”

Perhaps the Giants will get the value that they’re looking for from their potential trade partners. Or perhaps the rest of the league just doesn’t value Bumgarner as much as San Francisco feels that they should.

Either way, Bumgarner’s time with the Giants will soon be coming to an end. Now it all comes down to regaining the most value from his departure.