Will the San Jose Sharks re-sign or decline Joe Pavelski?

After a disappointing end to their 2019 playoff run, the San Jose Sharks will look to retool and come back stronger next season. But will they do so with the help of their captain, Joe Pavelski?

The San Jose Sharks 2018-19 season ended the way so many other seasons in team history have ended — overwhelming disappointment. Now, the Sharks will attempt to rebound and make another playoff run next season, but might they have to do so without their captain and leader, Joe Pavelski?

Pavelski is one of a very long list of soon-to-be free agents that the Sharks will have to manage. And we’re not just talking about and fourth-line forwards and third-pairing defensemen.

Apart from Pavelski, San Jose will have to worry about the likes of Erik Karlsson, Gustav Nyquist, and even veteran Joe Thornton hitting the market as unrestricted free agents. On top of that, first-line winger Timo Meier is set to become a restricted free agent and will likely demand an extension.

Still, re-signing Pavelski might very well be at the very top of the San Jose Sharks offseason to-do list. But does that mean the two sides could actually work out a deal? At the very least, the Sharks captain himself seemed to think so when he spoke with the press last week.

"“I’ve got a pretty strong belief system that I’ll be back here. It’s just things have to work themselves out along the way.”"

Oddly enough, the topic of Pavelski’s impending contract expiration was seemingly all but ignored throughout the regular season. On one hand, it’s great that the two sides were able to ignore the issue and focus on the team’s playoff run. But on the other hand, the Sharks have now dug themselves in quite the hole.

It’s safe to say that General Manager Doug Wilson has his work cut out for him this offseason.

And even though the Sharks have insisted that Pavelski will return and the captain himself seems to have every intention of playing in teal next season and for the foreseeable future, we’ve seen crazier things happen in the past.

After all, this is the same team that let the legendary Patrick Marleau walk in free agency after an incredible 19 seasons with the team. Pavelski, on the other hand, has played just 13 years — still a ridiculously long period of time, but clearly not off limits.

That said, Pavelski is coming off one of his best statistical years in recent memory. The 34-year-old posted a team-leading 38 goals this past season, his most since the 2015-16 season and the second-highest total of his career.

But Pavelski also battled his fair share of injuries throughout the latter portion of the season. A knee injury forced him to miss the final seven games of the regular season while a scary head injury kept him on the bench for much of the Colorado Avalanche series.

While he’s been extraordinarily healthy throughout his career, it’s fair to wonder if his age will begin to catch up with him. At age 34 this shouldn’t be a huge worry just yet, but it’s definitely something to keep in mind — especially if the team is going to dish out a four or five-year contract as expected.

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Back in February, TheHockeyNews.com did their best to estimate what Pavelski’s new contract might look like and they used Winnipeg Jets captain Blake Wheeler as a solid baseline. Wheeler signed a five-year $41.25 million contract extension this past summer to stay with the Jets.

The former Boston Bruins winger is just one year younger than Pavelski and could give a good indication as to what the Pavelski’s contract demands might look like.

Now, Wheeler has been good for a bit more production in recent years than Pavelski recording a total of 91 points each of the last two seasons. On the contrary, Pavelski has failed to top 70 each of the past three seasons.

Still, it would be fair to expect a contract somewhere along the lines of 4-5 years for an average yearly total of around $7-8 million per season. That’s a pretty hefty contract, one that the Sharks can afford in a bubble — they have a projected $24.7 million in cap space — but one that becomes increasingly more difficult when looking at the others players they still need to sign.

The market for Karlsson will undoubtedly be saturated, and the star defenseman’s recent goodbye post on Twitter has Sharks fans scrambling for answers. If Karlsson does, indeed, sign elsewhere this offseason, that would significantly increase the odds of Pavelski returning to San Jose in 2019.

The bottom line is that Pavelski wants to return to San Jose and the Sharks would certainly like the same. You never really know with these negotiations and the Sharks could very well try and low-ball Pavelski due to their needed cap space elsewhere and hope that he decides to take one for the team.

In all likelihood, however, there’s probably a better chance that we do see Pavelski back in teal next season than we don’t. But unfortunately, we’re just going to have to wait and see what awaits the team this summer.