Oakland Raiders: One potentially developing storyline worth watching
By Kevin Saito
The Oakland Raiders have plenty of intriguing storylines to follow this season, but they may also have one brewing for next season too.
In a short period of time, Oakland Raiders HC Jon Gruden has shaken up the roster – and the organization along with it – down to its very core. Among the changes are some big tweaks to the offense, as well as a revamped – well – almost everything on the defensive side of the ball.
The Raiders figure to have plenty of new starters all over the field when play begins in 2018. Which, of course, has led to plenty of speculation and interesting storylines for discussion and debate.
There is one storyline – or at least possible storyline – that may be developing and is definitely worth keeping an eye on. And that potential storyline concerns the future at the wide receiver spot.
Obviously, given the fact that they picked up his fifth-year option, the conventional wisdom is that Amari Cooper is the future of the position for the Raiders, and that the team will be working to hammer out a long-term deal with him at some point in the near future.
Cooper’s fifth-year salary is a tick under $14 million. Like most fifth-year deals, Cooper’s deal is likely guaranteed only for injury and contains no guaranteed money.
And perhaps, most relevant at this moment, is the fact that releasing Cooper after this season would leave no dead money against the cap
Why is that relevant you might ask? Good question. Let’s explore that for a moment.
When Gruden and GM Reggie McKenzie “jointly” made the decision to move back in the first round of the recently concluded draft, they acquired a couple of extra picks from the Cardinals. Though, most of us think they didn’t get nearly enough compensation from a team desperate for a guy they view as a franchise quarterback – but, that’s another rant for another day.
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Anyway, Gruden then used one of those acquired picks, a third-rounder (seventy-ninth overall) to make a deal with Pittsburgh. In exchange for the pick, Gruden got wideout Martavis Bryant in a deal that seemed to come out of nowhere, and shocked – well – most everybody.
At six-foot-four, 211 pounds, Bryant has shown a penchant for making big, explosive plays. He can be a home run hitter and make an already solid offense that much more electric. In his time with the Steelers (36 total games with just 16 starts), Bryant has put up almost 2,000 yards on 126 catches – a scintillating average of 15.2 yards per catch – and seventeen touchdowns.
Unfortunately, he’s also shown a penchant for not being able to stay out of trouble off the field. Disciplinary suspensions have cost him a pile of games – including the entire 2016 season.
Talent-wise, Bryant is on par with some of the league’s better receivers. Teamed with Cooper, and veteran Jordy Nelson, Bryant will add yet another weapon for quarterback Derek Carr to utilize, and add another dimension to this offense.
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If – and it’s a big if at this point – Bryant can get his head on right and stay focused, he could be in for a very big year. All of the ingredients are there – he’s got a ton to prove, has a huge chip on his shoulder, and is in a contract year. What more motivation could he need to put up some big numbers?
Wherein lies the crux of the whole potential problem/storyline the Raiders will be looking at next season.
Let’s say – just for the sake of argument – that Bryant keeps his nose clean and has the kind of season we all know he’s capable of having. Let’s say he’s everything Gruden hoped for and exceeds even his wildest expectations.
Great. Fantastic. But – what then?
Given that Bryant is in a contract year, he could walk away unless the Raiders pony up some large dollars to keep him. If he’s as good as believed, it would be exceedingly painful to see Bryant walk away – without any compensation coming back – knowing that Gruden gave up a third-round pick to secure him.
A third-round pick that could have been used on a young playmaker – of which, there were many – who would be with the team for a few seasons, at least.
Bryant thinks of himself as one of the league’s premier receivers. A solid, trouble-free season, in which he puts up big numbers, could prove that to be true. And then, as one of the league’s premier receivers, Bryant would, of course, expect to be paid like a premier receiver.
And, just in case you haven’t been paying attention, the market for premier receivers is north of $15 million dollars.
Just to reiterate, Cooper’s salary next season is scheduled to be just a tick under $14 million, and it’s very possible, if not very likely, that Bryant is going to be looking for (at least) similar money on a new deal.
Is it possible that the Raiders retain two receivers at (or around) that price tag? Anything’s possible, of course. But, is it likely? Probably not. Especially not when you factor in the number of guys on one-year, “prove it” deals – like say, Rashaan Melvin.
If Melvin proves to be a linchpin in the secondary, he’s going to be looking to get paid too – and the market for top-shelf cornerbacks, as they say, ain’t cheap.
Yes, they’ll have some cap relief when they make the widely expected move of parting ways with Donald Penn and his $10 million dollar salary next season, as well as some other moves that are bound to happen that will create additional space.
But, needing to replenish certain position groups given the number of one-year deals, along with mega-deals for guys like Carr, Khalil Mack, and Gabe Jackson, among others, is going to push them closer to the cap and very well could leave little room for two receivers making number one money.
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Which brings us to that potentially developing storyline worth keeping an eye on – what, or maybe more precisely who – is the future at the position for Gruden and the Raiders?
Given what we know right now, it almost seems like 2018 is shaping up to be an audition for both receivers – Cooper and Bryant – with the winner of said audition getting the pile of cash waiting at the finish line.
Cooper is coming off a down season in which he posted his worst numbers as a pro (680 yards on 48 catches, with seven touchdowns). Of course, not all of that is on him. Oakland’s offense last season was an absolute dumpster fire.
But, what if, given all of the changes and new pieces and systems put in place, Cooper falls short of expectations again? What if 2017 wasn’t necessarily an aberration, but the start of a trend?
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Logic would seem to dictate that’s not the case and that he’s poised for a big year – but, what if he doesn’t perform? What if his numbers are down in 2018 and the problem he’s had with drops over the course of his whole career, doesn’t get better?
Taking that though one step further, what if Cooper doesn’t perform, but Bryant does? If that were to happen – unlikely as it may be, according to many – and Bryant outplays Cooper, would Gruden then turn his attention to signing Bryant and kick Cooper to the curb?
Again, the Raiders may not have the cap space to ink two receivers to deals worth number one type money.
Although Bryant will undoubtedly add another exciting and dynamic playmaker to an offense that (on paper) looks poised to be among the better units in the league this year, his presence creates a little something of a problem down the line.
If Bryant has a big year and is lured away by another team waving a bigger pile of cash than the Raiders have to offer, then Gruden and McKenzie will have burned a third-round pick on a one-year rental player.
Which would be shortsighted and kind of an irresponsible way to use valuable draft capital. There were a number of young playmakers who were on the board that could have helped this team now – and in the future.
There is no question that in the here and now, pairing Bryant with Cooper and Nelson, gives the Raiders a pretty lethal passing attack. In the short-term, it helps this offense by giving opposing defensive coordinators a host of problems when trying to scheme to stop them.
The problem though, comes in the tomorrow, not the today of the equation. Is Cooper or Bryant the future of Oakland’s passing game? While possible, of course, it doesn’t necessarily seem likely that they’ll be able to keep them both.
This is all obviously speculation at this point. It’s just hard to get past the idea that 2018 is an audition for both Cooper and Bryant, and Gruden is looking at both closely, to see who can lead Oakland’s passing attack beyond the 2018 season.
At this point, there’s no telling how this all plays out. But, it’s a storyline that’s definitely worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses.