San Francisco Giants: Sunday is Promising Day for Cueto and Changeup

The San Francisco Giants need Johnny Cueto to return to form, and Sunday was a promising day for the pitcher and his changeup.

With Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija both missing substantial time early in the season, the San Francisco Giants’ rotation has rapidly become extremely thin. Johnny Cueto is the last man standing from the “big three” that was supposed to spearhead the top of the rotation, and the Giants need Cueto to be better than he was last season. That includes, first and foremost, his changeup.

For a long time, Cueto’s best offering was his changeup. It was one of the most devastating changeups in the game, allowing Cueto to almost always have at least one elite pitch working for him. From 2010 to 2016, a span of six seasons, opposing hitters mustered a .196 batting average against Cueto’s changeup, and a .312 slugging percentage. Of the 2,920 changeups that Cueto threw on that timespan, 18 were hit for home runs (one home run about every 162 pitches).

2017 was a complete change for the change. Opponent average jumped up to .266 with a dismal .565 slugging percentage behind it. Of the 491 changeups thrown last year, 10 were hit for home runs (one about every 49 pitches, more than three times as often as the previous seven years).

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While Cueto battled through blisters all season, the movement of his changeup suffered mightily. He lost an inch of vertical drop from the pitch. It wasn’t just the changeup that suffered, either, as Cueto went through long stretches of not being able to rely on his sinker or his slider. He would have to work almost exclusively with fastballs, which was still a good offering, but not enough to get him through full starts.

Even through his struggles with the changeup, it was still an extremely effective offering when it was working. Cueto’s 24 percent swinging strike rate with the changeup was a career-best, and 36 percent of his strikeouts were finished off with the pitch, also a career-best. When it was good, it was really good. But when it wasn’t, hitters feasted on the pitch.

Cueto had one final opportunity to work this spring, facing the Oakland A’s in the opener of the annual preseason Bay Bridge Series. He quickly showed that, now that he is blister-free, his changeup is ready to be great once again. He threw it for his second pitch of the day, and it featured some nasty vertical drop. After seeing the pitch start above his belt, A’s leadoff hitter Matt Joyce could only swing through helplessly as it dove down below his knees.

As Cueto worked his way through the Oakland three times, he continually flashed a changeup that looked like the pitch that has made Cueto so dangerous. He did allow one hit on the pitch, but also recorded five outs with it, including two of his six strikeouts on the day. Along with the changeup, Cueto also peppered the strikezone with his fastball and threw in some nice, tight sliders as well. His command wasn’t perfect, but the movement on his pitches was definitely a reassuring sight.

Cueto won’t be the opening day starter, with the injuries to his rotation mates occuring so late in the spring that it left no wiggle room to change Cueto’s throwing schedule. But he will be, by default, the ace of the Giants’ staff for at least the first two months. He’s the most experienced pitcher the Giants have, the one that has had the most success. The Giants will need Cueto to prove that 2017 was a fluke, and that he can still be a top-of-the-line starting pitcher.

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Obviously, the burden doesn’t fall entirely on Cueto. The team will still need standout performances from Ty Blach and Chris Stratton, and a resurgence from Derek Holland to have any chance of surviving this mess. Having a healthy, strong Cueto to lead the way would make life a whole lot easier, though.

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