Oakland Raiders: Johnson could be a very expensive disappointment
By Kevin Saito
The Oakland Raiders desperately need an upgrade at the cornerback position, but the player they’re being linked to, could be a disappointment waiting to happen.
It’s no secret – the Oakland Raiders have fielded one of the most porous secondaries over the last couple of seasons. To put it bluntly, Oakland’s secondary has been an absolute dumpster fire – and this, after dumping a ton of money into David Amerson and Sean Smith.
To be fair, part of the problem was schematic. Simply put, Ken Norton Jr. wasn’t a very good defensive coordinator (good luck, Seattle!), and he was never able to maximize the strengths of his players, limit their liabilities, or put them in positions to have success.
But, to be realistic, Smith and Amerson were flat-out awful in coverage, routinely being torched worse than California during wildfire season by smaller, faster receivers like Tyreek Hill and Brandin Cooks.
Following an injury plagued 2017 season – not that he was all that effective when he was able to suit up – which, of course, was preceded by a 2016 season in which he wasn’t all that much better, the Raiders opted to cut the cord on Amerson and save themselves $6 million dollars or so in the process.
The conventional wisdom says that Smith – after two highly unproductive seasons (which is putting it kindly) – will be the next one out the door. Given the fact that he carries a cap hit of $8.5 million for this season (and they’ll incur zero dead money should the eject him), he’s got a potentially very serious legal issue pending, and oh yeah, he’s more often than not, been beaten like the proverbial rented mule on the field, it seems highly likely that he’ll be shown the door, sooner, rather than later.
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Which, given the pending free agency of T.J. Carrie – and the uncertainty whether they will (or should) bring him back for 2018 – leaves the team incredibly thin at the position.
With last year’s first round pick Gareon Conley essentially having a re-do of his rookie season, given the fact that he was on the field less often than a streaker, and Dexter McDonald resembling a turnstile or Spanish matador, more than an NFL cornerback, the Raiders are left – once again – to rebuild their cornerbacks room.
And the one name that keeps coming up in connection with Oakland’s annual hunt for a cornerback (at least this year) is Trumaine Johnson.
Johnson has played under a franchise tag for the last two years as a member of the Los Angeles Rams, earning a tick under $14 million in 2016, and a bit under $17 million last year. And now, with the Rams likely unwilling to tag him a third time (and pay that 144 percent increase over his 2017 salary) and having traded for Chiefs castoff Marcus Peters, it looks like Johnson is set to hit the open market.
Which is where the Raiders, and their perpetual need for reliable corners, come in.
Johnson is believed by many, to be Oakland’s “top target” once the free agency window opens. There will surely be a bidding war for his services, given the reputation he brings with him, but that also means he’s going to come with a very hefty price tag.
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Sportrac puts his valuation at around $13.6 million dollars annually. Which would put him near the top-five in annual salaries for cornerbacks. Not counting Johnson’s franchise tagged $16.7 million last year, Washington’s Josh Norman currently leads the field with an annual average of $15 million.
And given the bidding war that is very likely going to erupt for Johnson’s services, that $13.6 million annually may turn out to be a bit on the conservative side.
The question GM Reggie McKenzie and HC Jon Gruden need to ask themselves is this – is Trumaine Johnson worth $14 million dollars a season?
Obviously, fans who are desperate to see the position upgraded will cry out, “Yes, yes, yes!” But, do the numbers actually bear that out?
Over his last two seasons, Johnson has pulled in almost $31 million dollars in salary. And for that hefty sum, he’s given the Rams 122 tackles (104 solo), two fumble recoveries, one forced fumble, and a grand total of three interceptions – with one returned for a touchdown.
Three interceptions in two years. That’s it.
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Johnson had the same number of interceptions as Sean Smith did last season, and although Los Angeles had the league’s thirteenth ranked passing defense, Johnson was simply one cog in that machine – and not the most dominant one at that.
To be fair, he’s been good. But he hasn’t necessarily been great. And he certainly hasn’t been $13.6 million (or likely more) great.
Johnson could potentially be a solid upgrade at the position. But then, given Oakland’s cornerback play the last couple of seasons, that’s a pretty low bar to clear. But, is what he brings to the table – not exactly a ballhawk, not exactly a thumper in run defense, and not necessarily a shutdown type corner – worth $13.6 million.
Assuming the feeding frenzy that seems inevitable once the free agency window opens, doesn’t drive that price even higher.
Yes, the Raiders need to upgrade the secondary. Yes, they’re very shorthanded at the position and need some competent bodies. But, as we learned with the Smith and Amerson experience, throwing a boatload of money doesn’t always guarantee success.
With limited cap space and flexibility (barring a sudden rash of roster cuts), the Raiders will need to be very smart in how they go about upgrading those positions of need – like cornerback.
As we’ve seen though, when it comes to bringing in high profile corners, it tends to be a case of buyer beware. And the last thing the organization needs right now, is to roll the dice, and come up snake eyes. Again.