NFL Playoffs: Previewing the AFC Half of the Wildcard Round

NFL playoffs start this weekend, with the Tennessee Titans facing the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills facing the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC half.

The NFL playoffs are upon us, and 12 teams have an opportunity to win Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, Minnesota this February. To kick off this edition of the playoffs, the Tennessee Titans visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday afternoon in the first game.

Kansas City fired out of the gates to start the season, winning their first five games while quarterback Alex Smith played at an MVP level (76.6 percent completion rate, 278 yards per game, 11 touchdowns to no interceptions). After that, the Chiefs would lose six of their next seven to fall to .500, but rattled off four straight wins, three within the division, to secure their second consecutive AFC West crown.

Tennessee, on the other hand, limped across the finish line. They lost three straight games heading into the final week, but managed to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, 15-10, in the regular season finale to sneak into the playoffs.

Even during the sluggish middle part of the season, Smith continued to play at a high level and put together maybe his best season yet. He threw for over 4,000 yards for the first time, completed 67.5 percent of his passes for his best mark since 2012, and had the lowest interception rate in the NFL, at 0.99 percent.

The playmakers around Smith certainly make the Kansas City offense one of the most dangerous in the NFL. Rookie running back Kareem Hunt led the league with 1,327 yards, averaged 4.9 yards per attempts, and scored eight touchdowns on the ground, and was a big part of the passing game as well. He caught 53 passes for 455 yards and three more scores.

In his second season, wide receiver Tyreek Hill emerged as one of the best deep threats in football. He made 75 catches for 1,183 yards and seven touchdowns, and led the NFL with nine receptions of 40-plus yards. Tight end Travis Kelce is still one of the most difficult players in the league to cover, surpassing 80 catches and 1,000 yards for the second straight season in 2017.

If Tennessee isn’t at the top of their game, this could turn into a track meet for the ultra-speedy Chiefs’ offense. The Titans’ defense ranked fourth against the run, led by three-time Pro Bowl defensive end Jurrell Casey, but struggled badly against the pass and finished 25th.

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On the other side, the Chiefs’ defense didn’t have a great season, either. They ranked 28th in total yards allowed, 29th in passing yards allowed, and 25th in rushing yards allowed. They had plenty of trouble getting off the field, allowing more first downs than any other team in the league.

The Kansas City defensive line has been hit hard by injuries, with Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Jarvis Jenkins, and Tamba Hali (who is more of a pass-rushing linebacker) all missing practice on Wednesday. Defensive tackle Bennie Logan was inactive on Sunday because of a knee injury, but probably would have played if the game had any playoff implications. So, he should be good to go Saturday.

Injuries will also make sure that Tennessee’s offense isn’t at 100 percent in the Wildcard round. Leading rusher Demarco Murray suffered a knee sprain in week 16 and was forced to miss the finale (and lose the team rushing lead as well). Murray has missed practice all week, and seems like a no-go against the Chiefs. That will expand Derrick Henry’s role. Henry finished the season with a team-leading 744 yards on the ground, but also struggled at the end of the year. In his last four games, he averaged just 2.3 yards per carry and went over 50 yards only once.

The Titans don’t have a big-play wide receiver, with tight end Delanie Walker being quarterback Marcus Mariota’s favorite target. The former 49er led Tennessee with 74 receptions and 807 yards. Sixth-year wideout Rishard Matthews will have to step up and give Mariota another solid option in the passing game.

Moving ahead to Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Buffalo Bills in a matchup of teams making long-awaited returns to the playoffs. The Jaguars finished 10-6 to win their first division title since 1999, and are in the postseason as a wildcard team for the first time since the 2007 season. Buffalo finished 9-7 to earn the second AFC wildcard, making the playoffs for the first time since 1999 and snapping the longest playoff drought in the four major American sports. They were the last team to clinch a playoff berth after the Cincinnati Bengals knocked the Baltimore Ravens out of contention.

The run game should be the offensive focus for both teams. Jacksonville had the best rushing attack in the NFL in 2017, averaging over 140 yards per game. They were led by rookie fourth-overall pick Leonard Fournette, who ran for 1,040 yards and nine scores on the season. The Jaguars also had four other rushers with at least 200 yards, with running backs Chris Ivory, T.J. Yeldon, and Corey Grant joining quarterback Blake Bortles.

Buffalo finished sixth in rushing yards per game, averaging 126.1 yards per game. They could, however, be without their top option against Jacksonville. LeSean McCoy ran for 1,138 and six touchdowns in 2017, but his status is in question after suffering a sprained ankle in the third quarter of week 17. X-rays were negative and his is still listed as day-to-day, but even if he suits up on Sunday, he likely won’t be close to 100 percent.

If McCoy can’t go, they’ll have to rely on fullback Mike Tolbert and third-year back Marcus Murphy, the only other backs on the roster. Tolbert was the only other Bills’ running back to carry the ball at least 30 times, getting 66 attempts for 247 yards, while Murphy only recorded seven carries for 41 yards.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is also a threat to run, rushing for 427 yards and four scores, but he’ll have to be on top of his game as a passer to give Buffalo a chance. That will be much easier said than done against Jacksonville’s number-one ranked passing defense. The Jaguars allowed a league-low 169 yards through the air per game, and picked off 21 passes, the second-most in the NFL. Four Jaguars recorded at least four interceptions, led by cornerback A.J. Bouye’s six. The Bills finished the year 31st out of the 32 teams in passing offense, but only threw the ball to the other team 10 times.

For the Bills to beat the great Jaguars’ defense, they’ll need to take care of the ball and keep drives alive, two things they were very good at in the regular season. Their plus-nine turnover differential was seventh-best in the league, while their 42 percent third-down conversion rate was sixth. But Jacksonville’s running game might prove to be too much for the Bills, who finished with the fourth-worst run defense in the regular season. Jacksonville’s dominant defense, as well as their bruising running game, should be the difference in this one.

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Awaiting the winners in the divisional round are the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers, who earned first-round byes. The Patriots, the AFC’s number one seed, will take on the lowest-seeded winner, while the other winner takes on the Steelers.

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