San Francisco Giants: Looking at the Latest Giancarlo Stanton Rumor

Rumors are just about the only thing available at this point in the offseason, and there’s a new one regarding the San Francisco Giants’ pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton.

Not a day goes by where there isn’t some sort of development in the Giancarlo Stanton trade sweepstakes, and Monday morning brought a potential trade offer from the San Francisco Giants. Craig Mish, of MLB Network Radio, reported early in the day that the Giants offered second baseman Joe Panik, top pitching prospect Tyler Beede, and top hitting prospect Chris Shaw to Miami, and in addition to Stanton, the Marlins would be willing to send Dee Gordon back to San Francisco.

A little later on, Giants’ beat writer Hank Schulman (San Francisco Chronicle) clarified that those players weren’t exactly the framework of a trade, but all names that have been mentioned throughout the process. But, would it work as a singular trade offer? Let’s break down the components of the scenario, and see how each team benefits.

The Marlins accomplish their main goal here, which is shedding payroll. They get the rest of Stanton’s 10-year, $285-million contract (with a team option for another year) off their hands, and also shed the remainder of Gordon’s deal. Gordon has three years left on his deal worth $37.9 million, with a vesting option for a fourth year (if Gordon reaches 600 plate appearances in 2020 or 1,200 plate appearances between 2019 and 2010, the $14 million team option becomes guaranteed).

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They also potentially fill one of their open rotation spots with a young starting pitcher. Beede was on the cusp of his first big league call-up in 2017 before an injury prematurely ended his season, and depending on how he does in Spring Training, the Marlins could shove him into the opening day rotation. It’s not exactly clear how Shaw would fit in for Miami, since the team already has a fairly young, cheap, and controllable first baseman in Justin Bour, plus Marcell Ozuna in left field.

Panik becomes that younger, cheaper alternative at second base. He’s eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason, and the Marlins would have him for two more seasons beyond 2018.

The Giants would also fill two important roles for their team. Not only would they bring the most dangerous power hitter in the game into the mix, they’d acquire a true leadoff hitter in Gordon. Stanton would give them the middle-of-the-order power threat that they haven’t had since the Barry Bonds‘ era, and is coming off a 59-home run, MVP campaign. Gordon is coming off another solid season for the Marlins, and led the MLB with 60 stolen bases. That would give the Giants a speed threat that they haven’t had in a long, long time.

San Francisco makes the top of their lineup better in addition to making the middle of the lineup better. They’d still have a hole to fill in center field, but the big league club would become much more dangerous with this trade.

It would also shoot the team right past the luxury tax cap, making for harsher penalties down the road the longer the team stays over. If the Giants want to shed some money to get under, or even just closer to that cap, they might have to make some more trades to free up some big-money contracts. Brandon Belt seems a likely candidate, as does Johnny Cueto. However, if the team trades Shaw and then trades Belt to shed salary, that creates another hole on the team.

The big question mark, of course, becomes how much money the Giants pick up on Stanton’s contract. It’s not an overwhelming return for the Marlins, even though Beede and Shaw are just about major league ready prospects, so the Giants would likely be taking on just about all, if not the entire thing, to make this trade work. Also, the Giants would get to keep 18-year-old Heliot Ramos, their 2017 first-round pick and soon-to-be their top prospect, so that works out well.

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This is all speculation and no one, outside of the guys in the Marlins’ and Giants’ front offices, know if either team would accept the deal. Plus, the St. Louis Cardinals have already made an offer and the Boston Red Sox are expected to follow suit with an offer of their own. But with actual details so few and far between, speculation is all we have.