San Francisco Giants Predicted to Sign 2 Top-50 Free Agents

The San Francisco Giants are predicted to sign two of MLBTR’s top-50 free agents, and one of those signings doesn’t seem like a good idea.

With the confetti from the Houston Astros’ World Series parade now finished falling, baseball’s offseason is underway. Free agents are just about set to sign, and MLB Trade Rumors put together their list of the top-50 free agents, complete with their predictions of where each will sign. The San Francisco Giants are predicted to land two of those free agents, and while one might not be such a bad idea, they should steer clear of the other.

Of the 50 free agents that MLBTR profiled, the two predicted to sign on the dotted line with San Francisco are center fielder Lorenzo Cain and utility player Howie Kendrick. While the latter player might be a good presence on the team’s bench, it seems that signing Cain would be counterproductive for the team.

Cain is a fantastic ballplayer. Over his eight-year career, he has put together a .290/.342/.421 and a 107 wRC+, and has been a cornerstone for the Kansas City Royals during their most recent upswing. In his last four years, all as the Royals’ everyday center fielder, he’s hit .300/.352/.437 with 109 doubles, 45 home runs, 298 runs scored, and 96 stolen bases.

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He has earned a big payday and some team in the league will give it to him, but it shouldn’t come from the Giants. It isn’t yet known with complete certainty if Cain is actually going to be a free agent, as Kansas City is expected to extend to him a qualifying offer. There’s the slim possibility that he accepts the qualifying offer (a one-year, $17.4 million contract), but he will, in all likelihood, decline and become a free agent.

Even if he does decline, the team that signs Cain will have to give up a lot because of the qualifying offer. Though they would get to keep their first-round draft pick under the new CBA, they still would surrender their second- and fifth-round picks, plus $1 million in international bonus slot money.

That should be enough to make the Giants balk at the thought of giving Cain a deal. With their record from 2017 giving them the second pick in the draft, they also pick second in each round that follows, giving them a good advantage to the process. That gives them an opportunity to get fresh, young talent into their farm system with those picks, and forfeiting them for a free agent is counterintuitive to that mission.

In addition, Cain is on the wrong side of 30, as he turns 32 a couple weeks after Opening Day in 2018. Cain will command a long-term contract, and he is coming off his worst defensive season as a big leaguer (five defensive runs saved, 2.4 UZR/150). He dealt with hamstring issues in 2016 that limited him to 103 games and seemingly carried over into 2017, so if the Giants did take this plunge and sign Cain, they could very likely be stuck in a similar to the one they’re in now in a few years. They signed Denard Span with the expectations he would be their center fielder, but was so bad in 2017 that they need to move him. That could be the reality with Cain down the road as well.

If the Giants are determined to get a better player in center fielder (and it seems they certainly are), they would be better off sticking with the trade market or signing a lesser free agent as a short-term stopgap.

Kendrick, on the other hand, might be a worthwhile investment for the Giants. He would be a solid addition to a team that hasn’t had great depth on their bench in a while. He’s 34 years old and entering his 13th major league season, but is still a quality bat.

The former All-Star played 91 games in 2017 between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals, and hit .315/.368/.475 with 16 doubles, nine home runs, 41 RBI, and a 121 wRC+ over 334 plate appearances. In his career, mostly spent in Los Angeles with the Angels and Dodgers, he owns a .291/.334/.421 slash-line with a 107 wRC+.

Kendrick brings a good amount of versatility with him. He’s mostly played second base in his career, but has played more and more left field in recent seasons, taking the position 156 times over the last two years. He also played a good amount of first base earlier in his career (93 games), and has taken third base (18 games) and right field (three games) when necessary.

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Kendrick’s bat, versatility, and the lack of a long-term deal could make him a good asset for the Giants off the bat. Cain, though, would cost the Giants a lot more than money, and seems like another headache waiting to happen towards the backend of what will be a long-term deal. The simplest solution would be to steer clear.

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