Cal Bears: Can the Bears Reach Bowl Eligibility in Wilcox’s First Season?
The Cal Bears are two wins shy of gaining bowl eligibility in head coach Justin Wilcox’s first season, but can they get there?
The Justin Wilcox era got off to a great start for the Cal Bears, with a 3-0 non-conference record and big wins against North Carolina and Ole Miss. They’ve fallen on hard times since, losing four out of their last five to begin the conference schedule. They’ve laid some stinkers in that stretch, including blowout losses to the Oregon Ducks and number six Washington. The one win during that stretch was a huge one, however, with Cal’s defense completely dominating the eighth-ranked Washington State Cougars for a 37-3 victory.
Fresh off the heels of a loss to Arizona on a “go big or go home” play call by Wilcox in double overtime, Cal sits at 4-4 on the season with four games left to play. They’re two wins shy of reaching Bowl eligibility. In some respects, this Cal team may have already surpassed expectations put on them before the season. With a rookie head coach, a sophomore quarterback with no previous college passing experience, and a defense coming off an embarrassingly bad season, Wilcox and his crew have done well to get their team to this point.
They have a chance to reach a Bowl game for the second time in three years, but it will be an uphill battle. They will go through the balance of their schedule missing some key pieces, like senior running back Tre Watson and senior linebacker Devante Downs, both leaders on their respective side of the ball. Linebacker Cameron Saffle and wide receivers Demetris Robertson and Melquise Stovall are also not expected to see the field again this season.
Next up on the schedule for the Bears is a matchup in Boulder with the Colorado Buffaloes, a team in a state of disarray.
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From a record standpoint, Colorado’s season has mirrored that of the Bears. They were undefeated in non-conference play before losing their first three games in the Pac-12. They snapped that streak with a win against Oregon State, beating them 36-33, but fell back to .500 with a 28-0 loss to Wazzu. That leaves them at 4-4 heading into their game against Cal, with a 1-4 record in the conference.
The defending Pac-12 South champions have a quarterback competition on their hands, with redshirt sophomore Steven Montez and redshirt freshman Sam Noyer sharing snaps. Against Wazzu, Montez played the first half and completed just four of his 13 attempts for 21 yards, while Noyer went 7-18 with 53 yards in the second half. Head coach Mike MacIntyre hasn’t yet announced a starter against Cal, and has said the team is “preparing them both to play“.
This is a winnable game for Cal. Colorado’s defense was as sturdy as they came in 2016, allowing less than 350 total yards per game. The group has taken a huge step back this year, and are giving up 422 yards per game through eight games. Their rush defense in particular has been an issue, as they are giving up 194 yards on the ground per game, fourth-most in the conference.
If Cal is to win this game, they will likely have to lean on Patrick Laird again. The redshirt junior has totaled 530 yards on 93 carries (5.7 yards per) and six touchdowns in seven games.
After that, Cal plays host to the Oregon State Beavers, who sit at 1-6 on the year and have yet to break through with their first win within the Pac-12. Their lone victory this season came against Portland State in week two, and in their six losses this year, they’ve been outscored by an average of 27 points.
Oregon State’s defense has been nearly non-existent this season. They’re allowing nearly 44 points per games (most in the Pac-12) and 478 yards of total offense per games (second-most). The offense has been much better either, scoring just 21.3 points and totaling 357 yards per game, both fewest in the conference.
Through eight games, Cal’s offense hasn’t exactly been a powerhouse either. They average just 28.4 points (ranked ninth in the conference) and 364 yards per game (11th), so this might give them a real chance to open things up.
“The Big Game” follows that, with Cal heading to Palo Alto to take on Stanford. The Cardinal are currently ranked 20th in the nation and are 5-2 on the year after rattling off four straight wins within the Pac-12. Junior running back Bryce Love has become a Heisman candidate with 1,387 yards on 135 carries (10.3 yards per carry) and 11 touchdowns in just seven games. He’s currently dealing with an ankle injury and is listed as day-to-day, and his status for Thursday’s game with Oregon State is in doubt. It doesn’t seem to be a serious injury, so barring an unforeseen setback in the near future, he should be good to go against Cal on November 18th.
Finally, for the second straight year, Cal closes the season against UCLA, this time at the Rose Bowl. The Bruins currently sit at 4-3 and are coming off a big win against the Oregon Ducks. It’s been an up-and-down year for them behind junior quarterback Josh Rosen, who is completing 63.5 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns.
UCLA owns the nation’s worst run defense, giving up 303.4 yards per game on the ground. None of the other 128 FBS teams give up more. Laird, as well as senior Vic Enwere, could have a field day on November 24th.
Looking at the remaining schedule, two wins definitely seems doable for Cal to reach that magical six-win mark. An optimist might even say that three wins is a possibility and Cal can clinch a winning regular season in Wilcox’s first year with the team.
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Either way, Cal needs Bowers to play at a high level. He’s been hit-or-miss this year, but has put together some strong performances along the way. The defense has to be strong as well, like they were against Wazzu. A Bowl bid is within reach, but they need to grab hold of it.