San Francisco 49ers Seem To Be Gunning For Top Pick In 2018 Draft

The San Francisco 49ers are off to a miserable start to the 2017, dropping their first five games, which begs the question – are they gunning for the top pick in the 2018 draft?

The San Francisco 49ers knew they were in for a painful rebuild when they brought in GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan. Nobody expected them to be terrific this season – but it seems more than fair to say that nobody expected them to be this bad, either.

And at this point, as one of just three teams without a win in 2017 – they share that dubious honor with the Browns and Giants – and some of the moves this team has made – it seems fair to wonder whether or not Lynch and Shanahan have already written the season off and are gunning for the top overall pick in next year’s draft.

During the offseason and into the beginning of the year, many people wondered if it was the New York Jets who were taking aim at that number one pick, given the purge of veteran playmakers from their roster. The Jets though, are surprising. At 3-2, they’re tied for their division lead and look shockingly competitive.

The 49ers, for their part, have had a tremendous offseason. They staged a coup in the NFL Draft, fleecing the Chicago Bears in a deal that allowed them to draft both Reuben Foster and Solomon Thomas – arguably, among the best at their positions in their draft class.

They turned over the roster, shaking out a lot of spare parts, and brought in some playmakers like Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin to give them a solid receiving corps. Coupled with the league’s fourth-best rushing attack last year, San Francisco’s offense looked to be in pretty good shape.

And then they brought in Brian Hoyer to run the show and what could have potentially been a fairly high-powered offensive unit has been among the league’s most anemic.

Despite the presence of plenty of playmakers, San Francisco’s offense ranks twenty-second in the league, checking in with an average of 318 yards per game — 221 yards passing, 97 rushing – twentieth and nineteenth in the league, respectively.

San Francisco 49ers /

San Francisco 49ers

Even worse, this 49ers offense has scored just 89 total points this season. Their scoring average of 17.8 points per game is good for twenty-fifth in the league – but it’s also a bit misleading.

62 of those 89 total points (not to mention 823 of their 1,593 total yards of offense – or more than 50 percent) were racked up in just two games – 39 points and 421 yards against the Rams and 23 points and 402 yards against the Colts last week.

Which means, that in San Francisco’s other three contests, they’ve managed to total up 770 yards and 27 points – or, nine points and 256 yards of total offense per game.

Given that broader context, the word anemic seems to be a vast understatement.

And yet, despite the offensive struggles, Shanahan has stubbornly refused to make any changes to the unit. More than that, over the last couple of weeks, he’s actually started reducing the snap counts of key, veteran players – the best players this team has at their position – fueling the idea that perhaps Lynch and Shanahan have already thrown in the towel on 2017 and are actively positioning themselves for 2018.

Starting with the quarterback position, suffice it to say, Brian Hoyer has been an absolute trainwreck. Brought in to be a “bridge” quarterback to 2018, Hoyer has been anything but. See, being a “bridge” implies that you provide a little support and stability to help a team get from point A to point B.

But Hoyer – he of the 59 percent completion percentage, four touchdowns (all in two games), four interceptions, and 75.8 quarterback rating – has been little more than a dumpster fire. He’s failed to lead this offense on meaningful drives, has cost them dearly with ill-timed turnovers, and has absolutely failed to produce in any substantive way.

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Now, they have a young quarterback on the roster in C.J. Beathard, whom they burned a third round pick on – a rookie who beat out veteran Matt Barkley for a roster spot. A rookie who flashed at times during the preseason. A rookie who, given the chance to learn and gain valuable experience, could be a solution to the glaring problem that exists at the position.

At 0-5 and going nowhere fast, what does Shanahan have to lose by letting the rookie get some real life game experience? At worst, what, they lose a few games? They’re doing that spectacularly with Hoyer under center.

Best case scenario is that Beathard comes in, provides a spark that this offense is sorely lacking, and leads this team to a few wins. Make no mistake, Beathard isn’t going to lead this team to the postseason.

But, he could potentially, at least make them a little more respectable and a little more competitive than they have been.

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Which, if you think about it, fits in with the idea that Lynch and Shanahan have already written off the season and have the top pick in next year’s draft on their minds. If Beathard comes in and wins some games – not enough to get to the postseason, mind you – but enough for them to fall behind Cleveland and the Giants for the number one overall pick, that would be a double blow for this team.

Losing a pile of games on the field and losing out on a shot at the top overall pick? It would absolutely be a kick in the junk for Lynch and Shanahan. And so, Hoyer continues to play.

Adding to, and potentially reinforcing the narrative, that the 49ers are pulling a shadow-tanking, is the fact that over the past couple of weeks, Shanahan has been reducing the snap counts of a couple of their best players. It’s subtle and yet, it’s – intriguing.

Carlos Hyde, the team’s best option in the run game and the leading rusher on one of the best ground units in the league the past couple of seasons, has seen a sharp decrease in offensive snaps and carries against the Colts last week.

In weeks three and four, Hyde was on the field for 58 offensive snaps in each game, getting a combined total of 41 carries. Against Indianapolis though, Hyde was on the field for just 33 of the team’s offensive snaps, getting just eight carries.

Conversely, Matt Breida is seeing an increase in snap counts and carries, going from sixteen offensive snaps and three total carries in week three, to twenty-six snaps and nine carries in week four, to thirty-five total snaps and ten carries last week.

Add linebacker NaVorro Bowman, the unquestioned leader, as well as the heart and soul of the 49ers defense to the list of veterans seeing a decrease in snap counts. A critical force inside, this 49ers defense can’t afford to be without Bowman’s presence or leadership.

And yet, after being on the field for 83 of San Francisco’s defensive snaps in week four, Bowman saw his snap count reduced to just 58 – or, just about 75 percent of the team’s total defensive snaps. Those missing snaps went primarily to Brock Coyle, who, it’s safe to say, is no NaVorro Bowman.

GLENDALE, AZ – OCTOBER 01: Quarterback Brian Hoyer /

Some will undoubtedly dismiss any idea of a tanking – whether it be in the shadows or out in the light of day – as nothing more than tin-foil hat conspiracy theory nuttery.

Maybe. But, maybe not.

Lynch and Shanahan are smart enough to see the writing on the wall six weeks into this season – the 49ers aren’t anywhere nearly as good as they’d hoped. They’re going to lose a pile of games in 2017 – indeed, it’s hard to pinpoint a week when their first win is going to come.

So, knowing they’re going to lose a lot of games, why not better their odds of getting a high impact player – perhaps, even a quarterback who’s got the potential to be the franchise quarterback they’ve been looking for – by ensuring themselves of the top pick in next year’s draft?

Continuing to play Hoyer and cutting the workload of two of their most productive players would seem – to some – to indicate that maybe, just maybe, something is afoot.

Sitting at 0-5 now, with no prospects of things turning around anytime soon, are John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan – trying to avoid the controversial debate that surrounded the Jets when the subject was raised this summer – working a shadow-tanking campaign to better their position in next year’s Draft?

At the moment, it’s a three-way race to the bottom, and it will be interesting – and perhaps telling – to see who gets their first.