Golden State Warriors: Leonard Injury is Not Enough to Explain Dominance

The Western Conference Finals will be principally remembered for the Kawhi Leonard injury, which changed the luck in favor of the Golden State Warriors. Without him, the San Antonio Spurs tried to follow their playing style, but found natural limits.

In Game one, what the Spurs changed was not the ball movement or the number of turnover (nine with Leonard on the court, eight without), but the efficiency. In fact, the Golden State Warriors improved their field goal percentage from 40 percent to 58 percent, scoring 17 points off turnovers and 20 fastbreak points (only two for San Antonio). The fast break points margin was 32-12 in favor of the Warriors.

All these numbers are something more than Kawhi. In the first three minutes after the injury, the Warriors scored a terrific partial of 18-0. An earthquake. Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant suddenly started to shoot and score at a frightening rate.

One of the keys of this was the choice of Mike Brown (Steve Kerr?) to attack Pau Gasol with Curry and Zaza Pachulia, playing on the size of Patty Mills and extolling the shooter options.

In fact, Pachulia set a screen for Curry, with Mills crushing against the Georgian and allowing the MVP to shoot, drive or assist unhindered while Pau Gasol was in late and out of position (because of speed or for poor enforcement). What is more, Gasol was in foul trouble early, limiting his performance in minutes and contribution.

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The other big issue for San Antonio after the injury was the defensive rebounding. The Warriors, without Leonard on court, grasped 9 offensive rebounds, converting them to 17 points. Overall, the stats in the first match confirmed this trend, with San Antonio collapsed from a plus-five rebounding edge lead in rebounds before the injury to -11 after the injury.

The Warriors lured Gasol far from the paint – his comfort zone – and crushed the Spurs with mismatch both behind the arc and at the glass.

But if defense was the main evidence in Game one, the offense was the key point in Game 2. Gasol finished with an 85.3 offensive rating, the worst among any Spur with over 10 minutes played. The Spaniard looked unable to compensate his defensive deficiency with offensive choices and Draymond Green blurred him on both sides of court.

Gasol was struggling, and Mills was unable to be a factor against Klay Thompson. The Warriors’ shooting guard, despite his problem with scoring, allowed Mills to manage just five points on 2-of-6 shooting in Game two with an awesome defensive effort.

The Spurs should find a solution to fight the Warriors. In Game one with Leonard on fire, the Spurs could dominate the game in the paint, outscoring the Golden State Warriors 14-4 in the paint, with Gasol able to drown out his man.

Unfortunately for the Spurs, this option has come to an end without Leonard on the court. Without him, Popovich hasn’t found a balanced five capable of opposing Durant, Curry, Thompson and Green simultaneously (assuming, that is, that such a thing is possible at all).

A solution sought by Popovich was to increase the averaged minutes played by Dewayne Dedmon and the rest of the bench. In Game three, when the series moved in Texas, the Spurs probably played the best of their strengths when Kyle Anderson, Davis Bertans, and Joel Anthony all logged minutes in the first quarter. The Spurs outscored the Warriors in the paint (62-50), off turnovers (25-20), fast break points (23-10), and second chance points (18-11).

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But the Warriors still won, thanks to a superlative shooting performance. If Durant and Curry are called to score in these game, something more surprising is happening with the bench. In fact, the support came from Patrick McCaw and Ian Clark, scoring 13 points on 6-of-10 shooting.

So, in three games, the Warriors won in three different ways because of three different factors. It was something more than Leonard. The series probably would have been more balanced (for sure), and the Spurs would have won some games. But the Warriors have too many options to be stopped by San Antonio, and are now just one step away from the Finals.

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