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What Is Changed For The Golden State Warriors Without Kevin Durant?

By Matteo Meschi

Mar 5, 2017; New York, NY, USA; Golden State Warriors point guard Stephen Curry (30) watches from the bench during the fourth quarter against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 5, 2017; New York, NY, USA; Golden State Warriors point guard Stephen Curry (30) watches from the bench during the fourth quarter against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Kevin Durant injury happened against the Washington Wizards, and it could considerably slow down the Golden State Warriors’ perfect machine.

Per the medical results, Kevin Durant will miss between four and eight weeks because of a sprained MCL. This resting period is thoroughly acceptable, when compared with the initial fear of his season being over. His presence for the first round of the playoffs is questionable, but the Golden State Warriors expect his return for the eventual second round.

The Warriors now must play without one of their superstars through the end of the regular season and, for this reason, the front office has chosen to claim Matt Barnes from free agency as a substitute.

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Obviously, the impact for the team will be big and Steve Kerr is already trying alternatives, such as Patrick McCaw as a starter. The reason he preferred the rookie to Andre Iguodala or Ian Clark is because he doesn’t want to touch the quality of the bench, which hasn’t been so reliable this season.

The impact of Kevin Durant was phenomenal, both on defensive and offensive side. By analyzing the statistics, in fact, you can see that the Warriors have a Net Rating (team’s point differential per 100 possessions while he is on or off the court) which drops from 15.2 to 5.8 when Durant is off the court. In detail, the Offensive Rating – the statistic that calculates the points scored team per 100 possessions while a player is on court – falls from 116.9 when Durant is on the court to 106.3 and when he is off.

Finally, the eFG% (measures the field goal percentage while adjusting for the fact that a three-point field goal is worth one more point than a two-point field goal) decreases from 58.3 percent to 52.7 percent when Durant is out. This is a stat to be reckoned with: in fact, without Durant, the Warriors probably will change their range of offensive solutions, looking for more threes than paint attempts. It’s not a coincidence that the Warriors drop the number of points realized in the paint from 34.2 with Durant on court to 6.5 with Durant off. Curry and Thompson will have more chance to shoot and the offense will develop on the perimeter.

Also, the Warriors will miss Durant on the defensive side, where, with lateral sliding and the support to Draymond Green, he gave consistency to the Warriors’ backcourt. The result is the Warriors decrease their +/- from +11.1 when Durant is on the court to +1.6 when he is off.

Now the fans are interested in figure out who will replace him in the lineup. McCaw was the starter in the loss to the Chicago Bulls, but he played too shy, with zero shots attempted in the first nine minutes of the game. The team has high hopes for him in the future -and certainly he doesn’t lack the talent – but Golden State needs more courage out of him. Against the New York Knicks, the starter was Matt Barnes, the newest member who was called to ensure depth on the bench.

Steve Kerr said that his choice will change according to the opponent and there will not a fixed starter in this role.

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The responsibility for the bench is increased. Kyle Korver, Andrew Bogut and Deron Williams going to the Cleveland Cavaliers ensured a lot of alternatives and good rotations while the Warriors should call on McCaw, Clark and Kevon Looney to get points off the bench.

The great fear for the Warriors is not just related to the eventual series with the Cleveland Cavaliers, but also to protect the no.1 seed in the Western Conference. The San Antonio Spurs are currently at 2.5 games from the top and the fight is far from over.

Getting the top spot in of the Western Conference would allow the Warriors to avoid a complicated first round matchup against Oklahoma City or Memphis, instead ensuring a matchup against a lesser opponent like Denver, Portland or Dallas.

That’s why the Warriors cannot take a moment to rest even if the qualification to the postseason is already secured.

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