Keeping Latavius Murray May Be Costly, Letting Him Walk May Be Costlier
By Kevin Saito
Latavius Murray has developed into a solid, reliable back and is about to hit free agency – keeping him will cost, but letting him walk might cost more.
In 2016, the Oakland Raiders had something they haven’t had in quite a while – a potent running attack. Led by Latavius Murray, Jalen Richard, and DeAndre Washington, the Raiders put together one of the league’s better ground games – sixth best, if you’re scoring at home. And because they had a potent ground attack, defenses weren’t able to just sit on the pass, helping to allow Derek Carr and Oakland’s offense as a whole, to flourish.
But now, Murray’s rookie deal is up and he’s set to become a free agent. As a very productive part of the three-headed beast in Oakland’s backfield, it might cost a bit to retain him. However, given the overall improvement of the Raiders offense this season, letting him walk could potentially prove even costlier.
There is a sentiment among many in the Raider Nation that Murray should be allowed to walk. His yards per carry average was less than Washington and Richard’s, they say. You can find somebody better and cheaper in the draft, they say. He’s not that big of a piece of Oakland’s offensive gameplan, they say. He’s not worth the payday he’s looking for.
“They” say a lot of things – and not everything is entirely without merit.
Murray’s presence in the Raiders backfield allowed the offense to do a lot of things. Not only was he solid in the run game, he was an asset catching passes out of the backfield as well. But most importantly, he was a very reliable blocker on passing downs – Pro Football Focus ranked him the third best back in pass protection.
He was an integral and invaluable part of Oakland’s offensive attack. And having young studs like Washington and Richard to add some variation to the Raiders’ ground game only enhanced his role. He was the thunder to their lightning.
And working together, the three of them electrified Oakland’s ground attack in a way it hasn’t been in a long, long time. And the offense was better for it. Much, much better.
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If you think it will be easy to snap somebody up out of the draft – even a Leonard Fournette or a Dalvin Cook – pop them into the lineup and expect the exact same results, you should really re-think that position.
First of all, with the Raiders not picking until late in the first round – twenty-fourth to be exact – there is no guarantee that they’ll even get a sniff of either Cook or Fournette. Secondly, there is no guarantee that backs who performed well in college – such as a Cook or Fournette – will have the same level of success on the pro level.
Typically, there is going to be a period of adjustment from college to the pros. Not every rookie is going to come in and light up the league like Ezekiel Elliott did. Oakland’s ground game was as potent and effective as it was because Murray was there – and had both Washington and Richard beside him to help vary the attack.
If you’re advocating for the Raiders to take a rookie to replace Murray, that rookie better be as good running the ball, catching out of the backfield, and protecting Carr on passing downs. Otherwise, you’re setting the running game back a few steps – something this offense can ill-afford.
And it’s putting a lot of pressure on that rookie – as well as on Washington and Richard.
We saw what an Oakland ground game without Murray would look like for a couple of games last season when he was out with an injury. And the results weren’t exactly pretty. Against San Diego, the Richard/Washington combination amassed a grand total of 89 yards (Richard had 31 yards on eight carries, while Washington had 23 yards on nine carries).
It was even worse the following week against a Kansas City team that wasn’t exactly stout against the run all season long. In that game, Washington racked up 49 yards on 10 carries, while Richard gained just seven yards on four carries.
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Oakland’s running game was obviously very different – and far less effective – when Murray wasn’t in the lineup. Washington and Richard, while fantastic in their own roles, did not show the slightest hint that they’d be effective in the bell cow role. No, this ground game was at its best with all three backs contributing. And assuming that a rookie can come in and replicate that sort of cohesion and success is a gamble – at best.
The Raiders should make every attempt to keep Murray and make a good faith effort with that goal in mind – but it will of course, be contingent upon Murray’s willingness to work toward a deal with the team.
With big contract extensions for Carr and Khalil Mack on the immediate horizon – and Amari Cooper just down the road a bit – the Raiders aren’t going to have as much money to play with as they’ve had the last few offseasons.
They’re going to have to be frugal and smart about how they use their money. Some estimates put Murray’s potential asking price at about six to seven million a season – a figure that would put him firmly within the top ten paid running backs in the league.
It’s also a figure that might be a bit overinflated and one that he’ll have to come down from if he wants to remain with the Raiders – something he’s expressed a desire to do.
Murray has developed into a solid back – a back that has done a terrific job of becoming an asset to this offense. Whether or not he’s a top ten back in this league is fodder for discussion and debate. But there is no questioning his value to this offense – a value that may or may not be able to be replicated by a rookie, no matter how highly touted they are coming out of college.
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The Raiders should make every effort to retain Murray. He’ll undoubtedly receive lucrative offers from other teams. And depending upon the size of those offers, the Raiders should give serious thought to matching.
The ask may get too rich for their blood, but GM Reggie McKenzie should do everything in his power to keep Murray in a Raiders jersey. He’s proven his worth, he’s proven his value, and this offense is just plain better with him in the backfield.