Do the Golden State Warriors Have an Issue with the Final Quarter?
Is it possible to have the best record in the NBA (32-6) and be on the hot seat? The answer is “Yes”, if you are the Golden State Warriors. Being able to accumulate so many great players on the same team sometimes looks to be a burden for a team forced to win every single game.
The loss against the Memphis Grizzlies happened just two weeks after the Christmas debacle against the Cleveland Cavaliers. These two losses set up a warning bell into the Bay Area for the Golden State Warriors. In both games, the Warriors were unable to keep a lead gained in the first three quarters, throwing away an almost certain victory. The Warriors led by 14 against Cleveland, and by 24 against Memphis.
The final quarter against Memphis was a kind of drama for Steve Kerr‘s team. The team had zero assists, five turnovers, 13 points, and shot just 15 percent from the field (they were shut out from beyond the arc). A real debacle. Between the night after the game and the next day, the critics were swift to act. A dangerous theory rose: these Warriors do not know how to deal with a lead against the other contenders.
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In fact, the statistics at first glance seem to confirm this trend. The Warriors look to be unable to keep their style of play in the final moments, taking refuge on individual play and ISO with more damage than benefit. The percentage of points scored in the fourth quarter unassisted is 35.8 percent when Golden State wins, while that numbers dramatically increases to 47.7 percent in losses.
The tendency to finish the game solo lends a partial explanation to turnovers. In fact, the percentage of turnovers that come in the fourth quarter is 19.8 percent in losses, while the average goes down to 14.6 percent in wins.
This figure leads us to analyze the issues with the shooting. In fact, between 15 and 19 feet., the make percentage drops from 45.6 overall to an embarrassing 25 percent in the last quarter of losses.
So, is there a real identity crisis for the Warriors? Is this team really unable to handle the last quarter of the game? Let’s see what has been the trend until now.
GAME |
SCORE AT THE END OF 3Q
4Q SCORE
EVENTUAL OT1 SCORE
EVENTUAL OT2 SCORE
Game1 vs SAS (L)
77-97
22-32
Game2 vs NOP (W)
92-8130-33
Game3 vs PHO (W)
81-78
25-22
Game4 vs POR (W)
100-73
27-31
Game5 vs OKC (W)
98-70
24-26
Game6 vs LAL (L)
82-93
15-24
Game7 vs NOP (W)
84-78
32-28
Game8 vs DAL (W)
84-68
32-27
Game9 vs DEN (W)
99-75
26-26
Game10 vs PHO (W)
99-92
34-28
Game11 vs TOR (W)
95-86
32-35
Game12 vs BOS (W)
86-57
18-31
Game13 vs MIL (W)
103-92
21-29
Game14 vs IND (W)
100-71
20-12
Game15 vs LAL (W)
106-78
43-28
Game16 vs LAL (W)
80-64
29-21
Game17 vs MIN (W)
90-73
25-29
Game18 vs ATL (W)80-81
25-19
Game 19 vs HOU (L)
82-8631-2710-10
4-9
Game 20 vs PHO (W)
108-84
30-25
Game 21 vs IND (W)
116-83
26-23
Game 22 vs LAC (W)
91-75
24-23
Game 23 vs UTA (W)82-70
24-29
Game 24 vs MEM (L)
65-87
24-23
Game 25 vs MIN (W)
78-88
38-20
Game 26 vs NOP (W)
95-9418-15
Game 27 vs NYK (W)
88-66
15-24
Game 28 vs POR (W)108-72
27-18
Game 29 vs UTA (W)
82-54
22-20
Game 30 vs BKL (W)
88-84
29-17
Game 31 vs DET (W)
88-84
31-29
Game 32 vs CLE (L)
87-80
21-29
Game 33 vs TOR (W)
104-87
17-24
Game 34 vs DAL (W)
91-69
17-30
Game 35 vs DEN (W)
94-85
33-34
Game 36 vs POR (W)
99-92
26-25
Game 37 vs MEM (L)
98-79
13-32
08-17
Game 38 vs SAC (W)
90-80
27-26
In 38 games, the Warriors were leading after three quarters 32 times, trailing only on six occasions. Those six occasions don’t correspond to the six losses. In fact, the Warriors were unable to recover from that three-quarter deficit only twice (against the San Antonio Spurs and the Los Angeles Lakers).
So, here we are at great enigma: the last quarter. Is it really a problem for the Warriors? So far, Kerr’s team has been able to win the fourth quarter only 21 times, meaning they have been outscored in the final 12 minutes 17 times. In four of those 17 games, the negative score meant a comeback for the opposing team and a loss for the Warriors.
Sure, some could counter that Golden State often plays the last part of the game with a big advantage, allowing Kerr to play the reserves. If we only consider games in which the fourth quarter begins with a gap of 10 points or less, we can find fifteen games. In these cases, Golden State had a worse points differential in the last quarter only four times (two of which came against Cleveland and Memphis during the last month).
Based on this, can we still think Golden State has a problem with the last quarter? Yes and No. As seen, when the match is disputed in the last quarter, Warriors won two out of every three games. On the other hand, it’s impossible underestimate what’s happened with Cleveland and Memphis. A very careful franchise to the details, as Golden State is, cannot certainly afford it.
But every thrashing need a symbolic image. For this reason, the episode between Draymond Green and Kevin Durant in Memphis loss is the perfect image of a confused team.
Is this excessive talent unmanageable? Do Kerr’s words about the low usage of Klay Thompson in the fourth quarter (“It was my fault”) indicate a concern about the team management when the game is uncertain? The most famous “criticized action” was the Durant shooting. He received the ball from Stephen Curry, played in iso, and missed the shot. Kerr called time out immediately, and Green appeared clearly unhappy with the idea.
So, Durant took a bad choice totally out of the Warriors philosophy, usually based on pick ‘n roll situations with an eventual extra-pass for the sniper behind the arc. Furthermore, Durant tried this play against Zach Randolph, one of the most solid defensive players of the league and at his best during the game against Golden State.
Durant showed to be not fully indoctrinated into the Warriors’ philosophy when they have some struggles, tending to fall into old habits. Of course, a one-on-one situation with Durant is not a bad option, but against a strong defense it doesn’t tend to lead to victory. Do you remember Game six in the last Western Conference Finals? Three minutes to the end of the game with OKC leading by three with the ball possession. Durant received the ball from Westbrook, tried the iso and was stopped. On the other side, Golden State went in transition and Curry scored alone behind the arc. Three points, tie game and virtual end of the series.
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So, in general, we can say “Yes”, the Warriors have some issues to fix before the playoffs. But the situation is not so tragic. Players need to know each other and not rush shots, continuing to run the team philosophy and making the best decision depending on the opponent. If Zach Randolph is the opposite player, for example, it would be better drive the rim instead to try an iso shot.
That’s why we can say Durant is still learning about the Warriors’ system.. And the Warriors, on the other side, are still learning about Kevin Durant and his style of play.
As told by Green after the game, the loss against Memphis was a good loss because allows to the team to look in the mirror. In May we’ll see if the Warriors understood something about the reflected image.