American League Wildcard Preview: Which Birds Fly Higher?

The American League Wildcard Game pits the Toronto Blue Jays against the Baltimore Orioles. Which birds will fly higher and soar into the ALDS?

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The American League East race was a wild one the entire way. The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles both spent their fair share of days in first place, but neither could come away with the division crown. Instead, it was the Boston Red Sox, led by MVP candidate Mookie Betts and soon-to-be-retiree David Ortiz, that won the division by four games. Now, the two runners-up that finished with equal 89-73 records will do battle in the American League Wildcard Game for the opportunity at a Division Series matchup. Because Toronto won the season series, 10 games to nine, they will play host to the Orioles in the one-game playoff.

Offensively, the Orioles and Blue Jays are pretty similar teams. They’re not necessarily “great” offensive teams that do all those little things right, but they both can slug it out. The Orioles hit 253 home runs, becoming the first team since the Blue Jays in 2010 to cross the 250-mark, while the 2016 Blue Jays hit 221, fourth-most in baseball.

The Orioles finished 15th in batting average and 21st in on-base percentage, while the Blue Jays were 23rd in average, but impressively sixth in OBP. Toronto was ninth in runs scored with 759, while the Orioles were 12th with 744.

This game may not be an offensive clinic, but it should be the game to watch if you like the longball. The Orioles’ Mark Trumbo led baseball with a career-high 47 home runs in his first season in Charm City. Edwin Encarnacion hit 42 home runs for his fifth straight season of 30-plus. Reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson hit 37 dingers for Toronto, while Chris Davis hit 38 and Manny Machado hit 37 for Baltimore. Seven other players from these two teams crossed the 20-home run mark.

The two pitchers tasked with holding these sluggers down are Chris Tillman and Marcus Stroman.

Tillman has been one of the Orioles’ most reliable starters for a few years, and bounced back from a down year in 2015 with a solid year in 2016. He finished 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.285 WHIP. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher (his 7.3 K/9 this season was the second-best of his career), but he has a deceptive motion and keeps hitters off balance with a big overhand curveball. He had one of the better soft contact rates in the AL, at 18.3 percent. In four starts against Toronto this year, he posted a 3.63 ERA and 1.299 WHIP.

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The 25-year-old Stroman completed his first full season back from a torn ACL, which cost him all but four starts last year (plus three postseason games). In 32 starts, Stroman went 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.289 WHIP. Like Tillman, Stroman isn’t a huge strikeout guy (7.3 K/9), but he does have that capability. He struck out seven or more seven times, including 13 on August 1st. He is an incredible groundball pitcher, as his 60.1 percent groundball rate was the best in baseball among qualified starters. He induced 22 groundball double plays, tied for seventh in the majors. He faced Baltimore four times this year, and allowed four runs or more in each of the last three matchups.

The biggest difference in this game could come from the bullpens. The Orioles rode an otherworldly season from their closer, Zach Britton, to great success. The 28-year-old lefty was a perfect 48 for 48 in save opportunities, and posted a 0.49 ERA, 0.836 WHIP, and .162/.221/.209 opponent slash-line. His groundball rate was even more impressive than Stroman’s, ending the year right at 80 percent.

The Orioles’ set-up man is Brad Brach, a first-time All-Star in 2016. He struggled through the final stretch, allowing seven runs (four earned) in his last five appearances of the season. Brach still had a nice year overall, with a 2.05 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, and 89 percent inherited runner stranded rate in a career-high 71 appearances. They also got good contributions from rookies Mychal Givens (3.13 ERA, 1.272 WHIP, 11.6 K/9) and Donnie Hart (0.49 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, 24.5 percent soft contact).

The Blue Jays, on the other hand, limped into the postseason because of their bullpens inability to hold leads late in the year. In the month of September, the bullpen owned a 4.80 ERA and blew seven saves. But they still have very solid pieces. The closer is Roberto Osuna, who’s still just 21 years old. He owned 2.68 ERA, 0.932 WHIP, and struck out 10 per nine innings while saving 36 ballgames. He did, however, blow three of his last four chances on the year. They also had nice seasons from Rule V pick Joe Biagini and Jason Grilli, whom they acquired on May 31st.

Blue Jays’ fans filled the Rogers Centre very consistently this season. Toronto led the American League in attendance, drawing just under 3.4 million fans on the year, and leads 42,000 a game. A full stadium would give Toronto a big homefield advantage, which played a part in the ALDS last season during the “Bautista Bat Flip” game.

Next: Giants Morning Minute: Wildcard Clinch Edition

The Orioles enter the do-or-die game having won seven of their last nine games, while the Blue Jays have dropped four of their last seven. None of that really matters in a one-game playoff. The team that puts together the best game (maybe in this case, out-slugs the other) will get an opportunity at the Texas Rangers. Anything can happen in October, especially when only one game decides a team’s fate.

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