San Francisco Giants: Can Jeff Samardzija Bounce Back in 2016?

The San Francisco Giants took a fairly hefty risk by signing Jeff Samardzija; can they expect a bounce-back season from the right-hander?

With a clear focus in the offseason, the San Francisco Giants put their nose to grindstone to improve a rotation that had transformed from one of the sturdiest and most feared in baseball to a group of oddities and question marks that relied heavily on a bullpen to pick up the slack. They achieved their goal over the cold winter months, setting the hot stove ablaze by dishing out $251 million to three big-name free agents, and another $75 million on a six-year extension for their extremely talented shortstop. $220 million of that money went to the rotation, including a huge $130 million contract for Johnny Cueto. The remaining $90 million went to Jeff Samardzija.

The Giants took a fairly big risk on Samardzija. After Zack Greinke, San Francisco’s number-one offseason target, juked everyone and chose the Arizona Diamondbacks as his new destination, the Giants acted swiftly to ensure they added at least one inning-eating pitcher to a rotation that was in desperate need of one. At the time of the signing, which became official on December 9th, there were a lot of good pitchers still left on the market that came with better track records. Johnny Cueto (who would eventually sign with San Francisco anyway), Wei-Yin Chen, Scott Kazmir, and even former Giant Mike Leake were all free agents at that point. Despite that, Bobby Evans and the rest of the front office took their chances with Samardzija.

2015 was a particularly trying season for Samardzija and the Chicago White Sox. Brought in via trade to fill out a rotation with talented left-handers Chris Sale and Hector Santiago, the right-handed Samardzija was borderline awful. In 32 starts and 214 innings, the one called “Shark” gave up more hits (228) and earned runs (118) than any other pitcher in baseball, and the 29 home runs he allowed were topped by only five pitchers. Even though his walk rate (two walks per nine innings) was well below his career average, his strikeouts (6.9 per nine innings) were also significantly lower than his career rate. Basically in short, the San Francisco front office really put their butts on the line by picking up Samardzija.

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But maybe, just maybe, Samardzija’s bad season in 2015 wasn’t simply because he was a bad pitcher. His velocity remained mostly the same, dropping by less than half a mile per hour in most areas, but his pitch choice was drastically different from the past. In 2014, statistically Samardzija’s best season thus far as a starter, he threw his four-seam fastball 30.8 percent of the time, his two-seam fastball 24.1 percent of the time, his cutter 13.4 percent of the time, his splitter 11.2 percent of the time, and his slider 20.3 percent of the time. In 2015, his usage of the arsenal was nowhere near the same. He threw his cutter and slider more than ever, at 20.2 percent and 24.4 percent, respectively. His two-seam fastball usage dropped to 8.8 percent last year, just about a third as much as he threw it in 2014.

In his introductory press conference in December, Samardzija also made note of a big issue he had in Chicago in 2015: tipping his pitches. Samardzija later said that it was a quick fix, and his performance in his last two starts of the season weas more indicative of his talent. In his penultimate start as a White Sock, he fired a one-hit shutout against the Detroit Tigers, striking out six while not issuing a walk, and doing so on an extremely tidy 88 pitches. In the proceeding start, his last on the south side of the Windy City, he allowed two runs on eight hits and no walks over seven innings.

Also in December, a few days after Samardzija’s signing was announced, White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper said he “failed” with Samardzija in their only season working together. Cooper didn’t go into details as to what exactly he meant by that, but one could certainly take a guess as to what that means. Maybe he was upset with the gameplans they put together and the pitch choices they made. Maybe he was referring to not catching the pitch tipping earlier in the season. Nevertheless, Cooper did have some nice things to say about the pitcher, and made a stand-up move by taking some of the blame.

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This signing is more of an upside deal than a deal based on past performance. Samardzija has had one ace-like season in his four as a starter, and has been average to below average in the other three years. But he has shown that ability, and will have a lot of factors working in his favor as a Giant. Aside from working with a staff that includes two excellent pitching coaches, Dave Righetti and bullpen coach Mark Gardner, who should be able to wring out the best of their new pitcher, Samardzija has one of the best catchers in baseball to throw to in Buster Posey. He also will benefit from having a great infield behind him, including three Gold Glove finalists (Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and Matt Duffy), and a phenomenal young second baseman in Joe Panik. On top of all that, Samardzija now has the luxury of pitching about half of his games in a pitcher’s haven, AT&T Park.

Even despite those miesrable struggles in Chicago, Samardzija still managed to throw 214 innings, his third straight season of at least 210 innings thrown. Samardzija, Max Scherzer, and R.A. Dickey are the only three pitchers with active streak of at least three seasons with at least 210 innings. He surpassed seven innings 19 times in his 32 starts, more than any Giants starter not named Bumgarner. Even if he isn’t 2014 Samardzija, a nice balance between 2014 Shark and 2015 Shark would still give the Giants a solid inning-eater in the middle of the rotation.

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For all the risk involved with the signing, the contract doesn’t look all that pretty. A five-year and $90-million investment for a pitcher whose median over the past four years is as a middle-of-the-road starter is a scary proposition. But in reality, that’s the nature of the market today. $18 million annually for a free agent number-three starter is on the high side, but it’s not considerably absurd, as Leake, Chen, Kazmir, and John Lackey all earned contracts worth $16 million per year this offseason. Considering that Samardzija, who spent the first four seasons of his career in the bullpen, has less mileage on his arm, but still averaged more innings pitched per year from 2012 to 2015 than all four of those pitchers, and is in the middle in terms of age, this is a relatively normal deal, albeit a bit bloated, for a third starter in today’s free agency market.

All in all, it seems like this move is predicated not just by the Giants’ faith in Samardzija’s ability, but also by the faith they have in their coaching staff. Over the years, especially during the Giants’ “Dynasty” years, the team has continuously turned castoff pitchers into staff stalwarts. Santiago Casilla, their closer, came to the Giants as a failed Oakland A’s prospect, and has become part of the “Core Four” of relievers, which is now the Core Three. Ryan Vogelsong‘s journey through baseball is well-known, but it wasn’t until his second stint as a Giant, which began in 2011, that he put it all together and became a very good big league pitcher. Yusmeiro Petit, Hunter Strickland, and Jeremy Affeldt are just three of myriad more examples. If there’s any staff in the game that can help Samardzija tap into that unlimited potential, it’s Dave Righetti and company.

Next: Long-Term Longevity of Rotation a Concern for Giants?

In his very short time in Giants’ camp, Samardzija has quickly acclimated himself to the band of misfits that wear orange and black. He and Madison Bumgarner seem to be forming a budding bromance, and Bumgarner admitted that he was “kind of hoping we’d go after him”. Samardzija has already worked with his new catcher Posey as well, and Posey had rave reviews, saying that Shark has “some of the most electric stuff I’ve seen”. And he’s also become fast friends with his new rotation mate Matt Cain, and the duo have become throwing buddies over the first few days of spring. Cain and Samardzija are in very similar spots, and have a lot to prove this coming year. Cain has to prove that he can return to form with a new arm slot following elbow surgery, and Samardzija is out to prove to a new team and new fanbase that 2015 is not really who he is. If both can overcome their own demons, watch out National League hitters.

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