Oakland Raiders: 10 Reasons Healy’s Take On Carr Is Dead Wrong

Dec 28, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) looks to pass in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

As we continue to wait, with bated breath, for the start of training camps next week, ESPN “Insider” Andrew Healy gave Oakland Raiders‘ fans a little something to chew on this past week. In his piece titled, “Why You Shouldn’t Believe The Derek Carr Hype,” Healy relied on a host of advanced analytic numbers to “prove” that Carr is not the franchise quarterback many believe him to be.

Though a recent article took umbrage with Healy’s take on Carr – including his use of a highly selective group of cherry picked statistics – we here at Golden Gate Sports believe that sometimes, you can’t beat a dead horse enough – and so we’re back for a second round of flogging a deceased equine. Please don’t call PETA on us.

In Healy’s piece, he discusses the lack of NFL success quarterbacks selected outside of the first round have enjoyed.

Wrote Healy:

"“There have been 18 quarterbacks drafted outside the top 10 since 2000 who threw at least 200 passes as rookies. Carr ranks ninth in this group — right in the middle — according to DVOA. That sounds promising until you realize that most quarterbacks drafted outside of the top 10 fail in the NFL. The ones who have succeeded were generally pretty good as rookies.”"

Ignoring the obvious – that Carr was generally “pretty good” as a rookie, Healy also ignores the other obviously slight hole in his argument – and by “slight hole” what we mean is a hole large enough to drive an aircraft carrier through – and that is the incredibly large number of quarterbacks taken in the first round who have failed miserably, spectacularly, and sometimes even hilariously. Did somebody say, Ryan Leaf? JaMarcus Russell? Matt Leinart?

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Is there a greater likelihood of a first round QB having success in the NFL? Perhaps. Does being drafted outside of the first round mean certain failure? Absolutely not.

Regardless of what those lovely statistics that Healy relies upon so heavily to present his case, the fact remains that talent will win out. Whether a quarterback is selected in the first round or goes undrafted entirely, if they have the talent, and manages to land in a system that maximizes that talent, that quarterback is going to have some success.

The history of the NFL is filled with quarterbacks who, though not selected in the first round, have gone on to become legends of the game – advanced analytics be damned.

With that in mind, let’s look at a few of those non-first round draft picks – a few of them, you may just know – that have gone on to have some tremendous NFL success. And “prove” that Healy is a buffoon and his argument is completely invalid.

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