Oakland Raiders Absolutely Must Avoid The Herschel Walker Trade Trap
By Kevin Saito
Well, that certainly didn’t take long.
In the nanosecond after NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell reinstated Vikings’ running back Adrian Peterson, the internet was flooded with articles and Tweets calling for Reggie McKenzie and the Oakland Raiders to make a play for him.
The massive outpouring of Raider fans pleading with the team to trade for Peterson was hardly surprising. Though the team is certainly trending in the right direction, they’ve come up empty on the superstar free agent front. And Peterson, who is a bona fide superstar, is widely seen as somebody who can give Oakland’s running game some real life – and as a result, give the offense a huge jolt.
Not to diminish or denigrate Peterson’s abilities – which are considerable – but the Raiders’ rushing attack was so terrible last season, almost anybody could have come in and improved Oakland’s ground game. For as bad as he was in 2014, Richardson came within 15 yards of being Oakland’s leading rusher – Darren McFadden posted 534 yards, while Richardson recorded 519.
With more than 10,000 rushing yards in eight seasons – well, seven seasons and one game – a very robust 5.0 yards per carry average, 86 touchdowns scored, and a 2,000 rushing yard season to his credit, Peterson is one of the most prolific backs in NFL history, and is a bona fide superstar.
And the Raiders would do very well to avoid him like the plague.
It’s not that the Raiders can’t always use more help in their backfield. They most certainly can. Third year man Latavius Murray appears as if he can — maybe? possibly? — be the workhorse back, and newly acquired Roy Helu will add another dimension to the offense as a change of pace back. And there are still plenty of questions surrounding Trent Richardson. and what he brings to the table.
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Will he ever be able to live up to the expectations, or his own potential? HC Jack Del Rio and McKenzie think he can. And Richardson believes he can as well. Given his public statements, Richardson is “comfortable” with the philosophies and style of Del Rio and OC Bill Musgrave.
He says that he’s familiar with the system because the Raiders will be doing some of the same things that he did when he was a dominating back at Alabama. Which seems like good news, and Raider fans are hoping beyond hope that he is indeed comfortable. If all three of these backs can perform, and live up to their potential, it would solidify Oakland’s ground game.
It would also largely render the need for Peterson completely moot.
Dec 1, 2013; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) rushes for 21 yards against the Chicago Bears in overtime at Mall of America Field at H.H.H. Metrodome. Vikings win 23-20 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
But because there are still so many question marks surrounding the running game, the speculation about Oakland making a play for Peterson will continue to linger like the smell of bad cheese.
Perhaps it’s just the pipe dream of some, and perhaps it’s simply a made up, internet driven story. Either way, Oakland would be far better off distancing themselves from all of the Peterson trade talk.
It’s not necessarily the fact that he beat his child bloody – though he did plead down to a lesser charge of “reckless assault” of his son – that is the primary reason Oakland should steer clear of Peterson. Though that’s not exactly a point in his favor, and not something that likely endeared him to team owner Mark Davis. It’s the fact that they don’t need him. Especially not at the cost it would take to get him.
What? Who doesn’t need a 2,000 yard running back? Surely, some out there are asking that very same question.
We should be clear. The Raiders could absolutely use somebody with Peterson’s talents. It would certainly clear up some of the lingering questions surrounding the ground game and improve the offense as a whole. But the fact of the matter is that Peterson is now 30 years old – and we know how the Raider Nation feels about the team signing somebody over 30 these days. He’s a big, physical back who is not afraid of contact. And with more than 2,000 carries under his belt, Peterson has taken a pounding throughout his career.
As evidenced by the age of his free agent class – nobody over 28 years old – it’s clear that McKenzie is going with a younger roster in 2015. For pretty much the first time in his tenure as a GM, McKenzie is actively seeking out and signing players who are in the peak of their careers, rather than in the twilight.
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This isn’t necessarily to claim that Peterson is washed up. Not by any stretch of the imagination. But at 30 years old, having so many carries – and the subsequent beating he’s taken over the course of his career – Peterson is most definitely edging closer to the end of his career as he gets further away from the beginning.
But the single biggest reason McKenzie absolutely must avoid Peterson is a pragmatic one – the cost. Not only is Peterson set to earn nearly $13 million this year, the Vikings will likely be expecting a very healthy compensation package in the form of multiple draft picks. A perhaps, unreasonably healthy compensation package of picks.
While Oakland has more than ample space to take on a contract as hefty as Peterson’s is, they are also a team with some glaring needs that must be addressed through the draft. And they can’t do that if they send all of their picks to Minnesota for a player who, at the end of the day, is a 30 year old running back. Likely still fairly dynamic, but still a 30 year old running back.
If, in theory, the Raiders made the deal for Peterson, how long would they have him for? Given the short shelf life of running backs who play with the physical style of Peterson, Oakland might have him for a couple of seasons at most.
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However, if they opted to keep their draft picks and take a younger player who filled an area of need, how long might they have him? While things like health and longevity are of course, never guaranteed in the NFL, the likelihood is that Oakland would likely have somebody they drafted straight out of college for quite a few more years than they would have Peterson.
McKenzie and the Raiders have laid a solid foundation for the team moving forward with players like Sio Moore, Justin Ellis, Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, Travis Carrie, and Gabe Jackson, among others. The team is trending in the right direction, but still needs some help. The roster still needs an edge rusher and a receiver – and this draft happens to be deep at both positions.
Should they stay where they are in the draft order – and they should – with the number four pick in the first round, and the third pick (35 overall) in round two, the Raiders can potentially address both of their biggest needs with some very solid, young talent. But they obviously couldn’t do that if they traded away their picks in exchange for Peterson.
Despite the fact that they’re on record as welcoming Peterson back to the fold, it looks increasingly like a bit of a smokescreen. It’s a leverage play. Minnesota, given all their posturing with Peterson and all of the things they’re saying, has no intention of letting him go. Unless the price is right. If a healthy compensation package can be worked out, Minnesota, more likely than not, wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger on a deal. And it’s not likely the Vikings would settle for a couple of mid to late round picks. They will very likely be demanding top dollar for their star running back. And why not? They’re the ones holding all the cards at the moment.
McKenzie believes strongly that you build through the draft. That you infuse your roster with powerful young talent. It’s a sometimes agonizingly slow process, but his philosophy is right. We are seeing the dividends of that approach already. And he needs to build on that success in 2015.
Peterson is an amazing running back. It’s likely that even at 30 years old, he will still put some pretty good stats up on the board. But he is certainly closer to the end of his career than the beginning. And the Raiders have several needs that must be addressed through the draft.
If there is even the slightest temptation in McKenzie’s head to make a play for Peterson, he would do well to stomp on it and squash it out of existence entirely. He’s been a dynamic player throughout his career, yes, but the Raiders need far more than what he can provide on his own. And they can’t afford to flush draft picks for a player who will likely only be with them for a couple of seasons.
McKenzie likes to tinker. He likes to wheel and deal. But he must learn from the past and avoid the same trap Minnesota themselves fell into when they dealt a boatload of players and a ton of their draft picks to the Cowboys for running back Herschel Walker. And those are undoubtedly picks Minnesota is still trying to recoup after getting absolutely fleeced by Dallas.
With the picks received from the Vikings, the Cowboys drafted what would be the foundation of their Super Bowl winning teams. And the Vikings got – not much in return as Walker never lived up to the hype.
Reggie McKenzie must, at all costs, avoid stepping into the Herschel Walker Trap and thus, setting the franchise back yet again.