Oakland Raiders: A Draft Day Swap With The Dolphins A Very Bad Idea

The Oakland Raiders have had arguably, the busiest offseason of any team in the NFL. Having overhauled the coaching staff, as well as infusing the roster with a load of solid, young talent, the Raiders are a vastly improved team, and have put themselves in a great position to have some success moving forward. And unlike Chip Kelly, most of Reggie McKenzie‘s moves this offseason have made sense – though some of us are still trying to figure out the Sean Richardson signing.

Despite such a busy offseason, with the NFL Draft rapidly approaching – 18 days and counting – things are about to get really, really interesting.

Obfuscation is the name of the game this time of year though, with organizations closely guarding their draft boards – lest they tip their hand and give the rest of the league an advantage. Having talked up a number of different players, McKenzie, HC Jack Del Rio, and the Raiders have done a great job of throwing up smoke screens and nobody knows exactly which way the team, currently holding the fourth overall pick, is leaning.

Offense? Defense? Amari Cooper? Leonard Williams? Kevin White? Dante Fowler Jr.? Trying to read the tea leaves and figure out what the Raiders are going to do in the first round is a maddening business. Especially since the team has a few glaring needs that absolutely need to be addressed.

But it really is anybody’s guess at this point. Though we all have our theories – driven by our vision of what’s best for the team – don’t we?

One bit of speculation that has emerged recently is that the Raiders might be interested in a deal that swaps picks with the Miami Dolphins. Whether just another bit of gamesmanship or not, it is an idea initially put out there by Jason Cole of Bleacher Report when he Tweeted out:

On the Dolphins’ side of the equation, it makes sense. Having allowed Brian Hartline to walk, and trading away Mike Wallace, Miami is a little short on reliable receivers. Sorry, but Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills are not going to carry the team’s offensive load. Miami desperately needs to haul in a receiver, and while this draft is rich with receiving talent, there are few elite prospects who can step in on day one and have a possibly season altering impact.

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Amari Cooper and Kevin White are both seen as that type of receiver and Miami, reportedly, is desperate to get their paws on either one of them. Which makes a deal with the Raiders, to move up to number four, very practical for them.

With Jameis Winston expected to go first overall to the Buccaneers, and some believing that the Titans will take Marcus Mariota at two, with Jacksonville likely to take Leonard Williams at three, the Dolphins would put themselves in a fantastic spot if they were able to work a draft day deal with Oakland to move up to number four.

But it begs the question, what’s in it for the Raiders?

If Cole’s “Insider Buzz” proves accurate, and the Dolphins are able to swing a deal with McKenzie, the Raiders would slide back to number fourteen in the draft order. Given the glaring holes on the roster, and the desperate need for an elite edge rusher AND an elite receiving prospect – both of which, will likely be gone by the time they’re on the clock at 14 – in what world would such a deal make sense?

Yes, McKenzie would very likely be able to pry a couple more picks out of Miami to make the trade – and we know how McKenzie loves accumulating draft picks – they’d likely be a second, and if he’s really slick, a third rounder as well. But in all likelihood, they’d move back to 14 and add Miami’s second round pick to their slate as well.

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All of that is to say that if Oakland and Miami worked a deal, the Raiders would be picking at number 14, number 35 (second round), and number 47 (Miami’s second round pick). Suffice it to say, that’s not a big haul to move down ten spots in the first round and potentially miss out on a season, if not franchise altering prospect.

What should worry the Oakland faithful is that it’s not a move that is without precedent. Raise your hand if you recall the 2013 NFL Draft. In 2013, McKenzie, holding the third overall pick, worked a deal with Miami, ironically enough, and moved down to number 12 overall. With that pick, McKenzie took D.J. Hayden.

And though Hayden has showed glimpses of how good he can be, by and large, the team is still waiting for him to live up to his potential. The pick of Hayden is especially galling when one considers that with that pick, Oakland could have taken Sheldon Richardson, DeAndre Hopkins, or even Kiko Alonso. With the second round pick they gained from the pick swap, McKenzie added tackle Menelik Watson at number 42 overall – also a player the Raiders are waiting to see live up to his potential.

It can be argued that McKenzie was simply doing the best he could with what he had – which wasn’t much. All of his draft day wheeling and dealing landed him additional picks that he used on players who are solid contributors to Oakland today – Latavius Murray, Sio Moore, and Mychal Rivera.

But the Raiders are not in the same position heading into this year’s draft that they were in 2013. McKenzie does not need to make a deal with Miami simply to accumulate another pick, maybe two. Not when there is talent on the board that can help the Raiders take a huge step forward. This season.

Be it Cooper, White, Williams, Fowler, or even Vic Beasley, there is some elite talent at the top of the board that the Raiders desperately need. Elite talent that likely will not be available at number 14. While they will still likely get a very good player if they move down, they likely will not get a player who will have as big of an impact – an immediate impact – as any of those at the top of most draft boards.

More than anything, the Raiders need a dominant edge rusher, and an elite receiver. Either of those can be had with the fourth overall pick this year. Neither of those will likely be available at number 14.

McKenzie has a well earned reputation for wheeling and dealing. But this is a case in which he must resist his seemingly natural impulse to accumulate an additional draft pick like he was a dragon sitting atop a pile of gold and jewels. It won’t help the Raiders in any way, shape, or form to move down ten spots for what will likely amount to an additional second round pick.

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Oakland has needs. Needs that can be addressed very nicely by holding on to that fourth overall pick. Using that pick on one of this draft’s elite players will help the Raiders take a giant step forward. Trading down ten spots may only serve to trip the team up.

The return on the investment in such a deal would be minimal. Given their needs, and the fact that they seem to be on the verge of turning a corner – a corner that can be turned much easier with one of the draft’s elite talents – it’s nowhere near worth it. It’s a deal that would benefit Miami far more than it would benefit Oakland.

If the top of the draft plays out like some believe it will, and the Dolphins do indeed come calling, the Raiders would be far better served if McKenzie avoids the temptation and gives Miami a sincere, “thanks, but no thanks.”

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