With not a lot happening and theOakland Raidersnot making a whole lot of headlines lately, we certainly seem to have hit that time of year again.
Yes, we’re in that dead zone between the Combine, free agency, and the NFL Draft where actual news is hard to come by. So those of us who cover the NFL are forced to consult tarot cards and crystal balls, read tea leaves, goat entrails, or whatever we can get our hands on, to give us a little information and insight during this otherwise dry period.
Or, you know, we justmake stuff up out of whole cloth.
Once in a while though, when we do get, or are able to ferret out some little nugget of news and information, it will naturally lead us to connect the dots in all sorts of interesting ways. Whether the dot connecting is at all accurate remains to be seen, but at least it can provide some interesting pieces for conversation.
In this case, when we learned that the Raiders had released veteran defensive linemanAntonio Smith— aka the Ninja Assassin — some simple dot connecting led us straight to USC’sLeonard Williams.
There is a fierce debate among the Raider faithful, and perhaps within the organization itself, about what Oakland should do with the fourth overall pick in the upcoming draft. There is a sizable portion of the Raider faithful who believe that if Williams is on the board at four, Oakland absolutely, positively has to take him. No question about it. Even with the upgrades made to the defensive front via free agency — not to mention the idea that the team is flirting with the idea of puttingKhalil Mackinto the DE spot oppositeJustin Tuck— the pro-Williams camp says that taking him is a no-brainer.
Of course, others think the pick should be used to grab QBDerek Carra valuable weapon such as Amari Cooper or Kevin White — though there is also a huge debate about whether Cooper or White is the better option, but we digress. And another camp is emerging who believes that GMReggie McKenziemust trade the pick — either up to be sure they can grab Williams, or down to accumulate more picks.
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But for our purposes, let’s focus on what, if anything, the release of Smith means.
Smith had something of a down year in 2014, there is no question. He wasn’t overly effective against the run and had a hard time shedding blocks. But once in a while, he was able to push the pocket, as he did manage to rack up three sacks — which was good for a third place tie with LBSio Moorein team stats. Not only that, but Smith was a very solid glue guy. He helped keep the locker room fun and light, and helped hold the team together, particularly during a very nasty 0-10 start to the season — incidentally, that 0-10 start led Smith’s personal losing streak to 24 games after losing 14 straight with Houston the year before.
By all accounts, Smith as a good guy who was solid in the locker room and though not dominant on the field, was definitely serviceable, and even able to shine on the occasional play. The word from NFL Insider Ian Rapaport, was that McKenzie and HCJack Del Riohad discussed Smith’s status for weeks before making the decision to pull the plug after just one season.
Feb 22, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Southern California Trojans defensive lineman Leonard Williams goes through a workout drill during the 2015 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
But with all of the movement the Raiders have made to their defensive front this offseason, the defensive line is becoming a very crowded place. Oakland already has Tuck,Justin Ellis,Dan Williams,Benson Mayowa,C.J. Wilson, as well as spare parts likeStacy McGee,Ricky Lumpkin, andDenico Autry. That’s a lot of bodies in the rotation.
Here’s where you will want to put on your tin foil hat for a little conspiracy theory as we attempt to connect the dots — a conspiracy theory a good number of Raider fans are hoping beyond hope is true.
On some level, it makes sense for Oakland to part ways with Smith. Especially if they plan on having Mack play the edge. And releasing Smith makes even more sense if you believe that they wanted to clear out a roster spot to go and get Williams if he’s there at four.
Of course, with rumors flying around about McKenzie’s willingness to trade that fourth overall pick, another school of thought is emerging that Oakland is looking to move UP in the draft to be sure that they get Williams because they’re not so sure he’ll be there at four.
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Okay, you can take the tin foil hats off, now.
The idea of trading up doesn’t make much sense, especially given McKenzie’s penchant for not wanting to part with valuable draft picks — something he’d likely have to do to move up into one of the top three spots in the order. Despite a nice free agency period in which many areas were addressed, Oakland still has a lot of needs, so parting with valuable picks in order to move up a spot or two seems like a waste.
Of course, there will be some who believe that Williams is so transcendent as a player, that he is worth the loss of later picks for the chance to get him to Oakland.
Williams is an unbelievable talent. He will help upgrade any defense he’s a member of, there is no question. But given the offseason moves the Raiders have made, is he a necessity for Oakland at this point? Given the glut of bodies the Raiders have on the roster at this moment, would adding another one be the smartest move they could make?
Especially when they still have a big need at receiver?
Releasing Smith may have been a very subtle hint at Oakland’s draft plans. After all, they didn’t release him to save some cap space — they’ll save another $3 million plus by releasing him, but now have more than $23 million still to spend to get to the salary cap floor.
Smith’s release though, could have simply been nothing more than a team releasing a player on the wrong side of thirty, who appears to be in decline. It’s possible that’s all there was to it. But at this point, it’s just as possible that Oakland released him because they realized that if he’s there at four, and they draft Williams, they’ll need to be sure they have an open roster spot for him.
After all, they can only carry so many players on the defensive line.
It’s all speculation and conjecture at this point, but it’s speculation and conjecture that a large number of the Raider faithful would love to see come to fruition. Only time will tell.
Next: Del Rio Makes Surprising Addition to Coaching Staff
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