Oakland Raiders Can Contend For AFC West Title in 2015

The very idea that the Oakland Raiders can contend in a tough AFC West division in 2015 sounds a bit absurd, doesn’t it? You’d have to be crazy, or looking through Silver and Black colored glasses to believe that, right? Coming off a 3-13 season, which capped off more than a decade of – to put it mildly – futility, it’s not a statement that very many people are likely to be on board with. But as crazy as it sounds, the Raiders can absolutely contend for the AFC West crown in 2015.

Let us preface the above sentiments by saying this: To win the AFC West and make a return to the playoffs, the Raiders are going to need some help – as well as be able to help themselves.

There are undoubtedly many, many people out there who think the idea that the Raiders improved enough this offseason to make a serious run at the division title is preposterous. But the idea that they could win the division has as much to do with their own improvements, as it does with the weakening of the other teams in the AFC West.

While the Raiders added a number of important pieces that are big upgrades and help the team immediately, neither the Chiefs, Broncos, or Chargers did a lot that vastly improved their squads. They were able to plug in spare parts to replace players who weren’t brought back or left via free agency, but they all seem to be treading water this offseason.

The Denver Broncos have had arguably, the worst offseason of the AFC West teams. Salary cap issues and a lack of spending money forced the departure of players like Terrance Knighton, Julius Thomas, Orlando Franklin, Rahim Moore, and Nate Irving. Yes, they brought in Owen Daniels, but does anybody really think he’s an upgrade over Thomas? Shelley Smith was brought in to replace Franklin, but like Daniels, is a step down from the man he’s taking over for.

Nov 30, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) is tackled by New Orleans Saints middle linebacker Curtis Lofton (50) during the third quarter at Heinz Field. The Saints won 35-32. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

And let’s not forget that in 2014, for perhaps the first time in his career, Peyton Manning started to look like what he is – a 39 year old quarterback. Though he had what most QB’s would consider a great season – statistically speaking – there is no doubt that toward the end of the year, Manning didn’t look like the prolific gunslinger we all know him to be. He wasn’t nearly as effective, and looked like a player on the verge of retirement. And that was with a full compliment of weapons.

Denver has already indicated that they are going to take some of the offensive burden off of Manning by focusing on a power running game. Which is probably smart given the fact that Manning will be without reliable targets like Thomas and Wes Welker.

Though they still have Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders in the fold, they might not be able to make up for some of Denver’s personnel losses – especially along the offensive line. And with the Broncos shifting to a run heavy offense, having them on the roster might not make much of a difference this season anyway.

The Chargers also haven’t done much in the way of upgrading and improving their roster this offseason. In fact, they lost more players than the Broncos did. In some cases, its addition by subtraction, and they have youngsters to replace the losses. In other cases though – such as the loss to retirement of stalwart center Nick Hardwick – San Diego is left without a lot of answers.

In the case of Hardwick, they hope that last year’s third round selection, Chris Watt, can step up. But as a second year player, there is no way he can fill Hardwick’s shoes. Especially at such a critical position – the anchor of the offensive line. They did add Denver FA guard Orlando Franklin, a slight upgrade over the departed Jeromey Clary, but they still have question marks at the other guard spot.

Having retained Brandon Flowers, the Chargers’ secondary looks to be formidable again in 2015, and with Steve Johnson joining Keenan Allen and Malcolm Floyd, San Diego could have a potent passing attack. But the effectiveness of that passing attack will be relying on the bad back of 33 year old Philip Rivers.

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Though Rivers threw for more than 4,000 yards and 31 scores, he also threw 18 picks – second most in his career – and looked far less effective over the last quarter of the season, posting QB ratings of 73.9, 62.2, 82.0, and 62.3 over his last four games – a span in which he threw just 6 touchdowns against 10 interceptions.

Rivers says he’s on the “up and up,” but is he really? And given the number of hits he takes – according to ESPN Stats & Information, Rivers was hit on dropbacks the twelfth most in the league in 2014 – how long will it be before Rivers’ back issues flare up again? He’s not getting any younger, and injuries have a way of lingering as we age.

While the Chargers, on paper, haven’t gotten any worse this offseason, they haven’t gotten much better either. And with all of their hopes pretty much literally resting on the back of Rivers, there is the chance of a real bad season in San Diego.

Nobody seems to do less with more than Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith. He made a little piece of history in 2014 by not completing a single touchdown pass to a wide receiver – the whole season. Now granted, Kansas City didn’t have the most formidable receiving corps last year, but to not complete one TD pass to them? Really?

Smith threw for just over 3,000 yards last season and posted 18 touchdowns against six interceptions, and a 65.3 percent completion rate. Given the fact that he’s a master at the checkdown, short completion, one would think his completion rate should be higher. But we digress…

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Having lost starting center Rodney Hudson to the Raiders is a double whammy for the Chiefs. Having lost tackle Ryan Harris, guard Mike McGlynn, and even TE Tony Fasano, Kansas City’s offensive line is a bit of a mess this offseason. And a real source of concern for the team. They’ve brought in guards Paul Fanaika – who will be playing for his third team in four seasons – and Ben Grubbs who is going into his tenth season in the league. Both may be serviceable stopgaps, but they won’t be dominant, and they aren’t long term solutions.

Kansas City’s offensive line will be a real source of trouble for this team in 2015.

Head coach Andy Reid did manage to bring in one of the more explosive playmakers on the open market when he signed one of his players in Philly, Jeremy Maclin, to a 5 year, $55 million dollar deal. However, Maclin’s talents will likely go to waste as Smith isn’t a QB who is comfortable taking shots down the field, and much prefers the short/intermediate game. It’s just who he is and how he’s wired. It’s not something that will change overnight.

Kansas City’s other big name acquisition was former Oakland safety Tyvon Branch. If he’s healthy, he can be a very good safety. Unfortunately for Branch, he’s not been healthy for the last two seasons. Hence, his departure from the team.

Branch can potentially be a good acquisition, but overall, the Kansas City secondary is suspect. Which makes it a very good thing that they have some real thumpers up front in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Those two guys will put substantial pressure on opposing QB’s, which will help a secondary that isn’t exactly the strongest.

Kansas City had a very up and down season in 2014, which they finished with a 9-7 record, and without a trip to the postseason. Having had so many departures this offseason, and not a lot of impact signings, it could be another long, up and down season for the Chiefs.

Having a ton of money at their disposal, and an NFL mandate to spend it, the Raiders were one of the busiest teams this offseason. To this point, they’ve signed eleven players who will make solid contributions to this team.

Having signed Dan Williams, Curtis Lofton, and Nate Allen – all of whom are expected to start on day one – the Raiders are much better up the middle of the defense than they were in 2014. They will be far better against the run this year, which will keep them in a lot of games.

While Williams and Justin Ellis will be able to fill the running gaps, and push the pocket, the possibility of pairing last year’s rookie standout Khalil Mack with Justin Tuck on the edges could give Oakland a much improved pass rush in 2015.

There is no doubt that Oakland’s defensive front is going to be better in the coming year. Opposing teams will no longer be able to gash them on the ground at will like they did in 2014. The real question mark hovering over the Raiders’ defense will be the play of cornerbacks Travis Carrie and D.J. Hayden. GM Reggie McKenzie and HC Jack Del Rio have both expressed nothing but faith in the pair of young corners, a sure sign that both will be the starters when the season opens.

It will be a lot of pressure and expectation of both Carrie and Hayden, and the Raiders defense will be counting on them staying healthy and continuing to develop, building on those flashes of brilliance that they showed in spots last season.

But the single biggest factor that will determine the success or failure of the 2015 Raiders’ squad will be how Derek Carr continues to develop. He, nor the team, can afford for him to go into a sophomore slump. After starting all 16 games last season, and showing that he has the potential to be the true franchise QB the Raiders have lacked for so long, Oakland is going to need him to build upon that if they are going to have success.

The Raiders have one of the more intriguing, and potentially explosive, running games in the league. We already know what we’re going to get from Roy Helu, and the dimension he adds to the offense. And it can only help Carr. But if Latavius Murray can show off the form that led him to a 5.4 ypc average last season, and if Trent Richardson can finally live up to his potential, the Raiders might have a potent running game that will take the pressure off of Carr and let him develop into the QB the team believes he can be.

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Of course, getting him some receiving help is necessary as well. Having missed out on free agents Maclin and Randall Cobb, the Raiders will be looking for impact receivers in the draft. At number four, there is every possibility that Oakland will select Amari Cooper or Kevin White, either of which will significantly upgrade the offense.

Adding Cooper or White to a receiving corps that will feature Rod Streater – back after injuries limited to him to three games in 2014 – James Jones, Brice Butler, Kenbrell Thompkins, and likely Andre Holmes, as well as pass catching TE Mychal Rivera, will give Carr a solid compliment of receiving threats. He will have have short, intermediate, and downfield threats to choose from – and with an improved offensive line, and a running game that will keep defenses honest, he will have the time to make the throws necessary.

Oakland must absolutely still put together the pieces of the puzzle that will allow them to succeed. They have a lot of really solid, as well as really intriguing pieces, that will move Oakland forward. ESPN recently gave the Raiders a B+ for their offseason work, and Cheifs coach Andy Reid recently called the Raiders, a team on the rise who will be tough in 2015.

While the Raiders have some work to do yet, and questions that need answers, they have most definitely closed the gap between themselves and their division rivals. While the Raiders considerably improved their squad, none of the other teams got significantly better. They more or less held the status quo – except in the case of Kansas City who actually got a little worse this offseason.

Most consider it to be a longshot at best, but worst to first stories aren’t at all uncommon in sports. And given the fact that they had arguably, the best free agency period in their division, the Raiders are indeed a team on the rise. They have much work to do yet, and much still to prove – chief among them, that they can be competitive and contend for a division title.

It won’t be easy. They will need some help, but more so than anything, the Raiders need to help themselves. They’ve got a good start on doing that this offseason, now they just need to take it to the next level.

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