San Francisco Giants Mailbag: Rotation, Lineup, Tim Lincecum
Mar 3, 2015; Mesa, AZ, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Tim Lincecum (55) throws in the third inning against the Oakland Athletics at HoHoKam Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
@MaggiePilloton Lincecum is off to a promising start,but realistically how likely is it that we see the return of the Cy Young winning Tim?
— Skriv (@Skriv75) March 5, 2015
Lincecum has gotten off to an impressive start to Spring Training this year. He’s impressed his teammates in his live batting practice sessions with his “deceptive” pitches, and in his first Cactus League appearance, he went ahead 0-2 in the count to all four batters he faced. He did give up a run though off of a double and a couple wild pitches, but he was generally pleased with his fastball command after the game.
As mentioned earlier, Lincecum will be the fifth starter for the Giants this year, but it is not guaranteed that he will maintain that spot for the whole season, as Vogelsong and Petit will be ready if Lincecum starts to struggle. This is arguably the most important spring for Lincecum in his career, as there is extra pressure on him to perform well this season.
Even though Lincecum has shown some promise this spring, it seems near impossible that he will return to his Cy Young form. Lincecum could certainly bounce back and have a solid season in 2015, but it will very difficult for him, physically, to pitch the way he did in his Cy Young seasons.
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The velocity on Lincecum’s pitches in the past couple seasons has decreased greatly since he first entered MLB. This might not be indicative of what the velocity on his pitches will be later in the season, but so far in spring, his fastball has topped out at 89-90 miles per hour. This is partially why location and deception are even more important for Lincecum now than it was before.
Lincecum can’t purely rely on velocity to get batters out anymore. He has to have perfect command and mechanics to be effective, which has been difficult for him to establish. His “freaky” delivery has to be extra freaky to get hitters out now. Therefore, it all comes back to consistency for him, which can be difficult given his unorthodox approach.
Back in the day, Lincecum’s command could be slightly off, but he could still get batters out because of how he hides the ball and how difficult it was for batters to react to his funky delivery. Now that batters are used to his approach and he has become more predictable with his pitches (partially because his fastball velocity is down), it’s harder for Lincecum to get batters out at the same frequency as he used to.
In 2015, Lincecum won’t transform into the Lincecum that won two Cy Young Awards. However, he could set his goal at finishing the season with an ERA below 4.00 or, if he really wants to push himself, below 3.50.
As mentioned before, Lincecum could definitely have a better season in 2015 than he has had in the last couple seasons, but it will be extremely difficult, and near impossible, to get back into Cy Young form.
Next: Tim Lincecum Impressing and Showing Consistency in Spring