San Francisco Giants Mailbag: Rotation, Lineup, Tim Lincecum

Aug 29, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants center fielder Angel Pagan (16) greets second baseman Joe Panik (12) at home plate after Giants catcher Buster Posey (not pictured) hit a two RBI triple in the fifth inning of their MLB baseball game with the Milwaukee Brewers at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports

The good news for the Giants is they have a lot of options for their starting lineup in 2015. There are a lot of tough decisions to make, but the Bochy is a lineup master so he will find the best way to utilize each player’s skills. He can also tinker with the lineup at the beginning of the season until he finds the best mix.

One important factor when determining the Opening Day lineup is the injury that Hunter Pence suffered Thursday. Pence fractured his left forearm, and he is expected to miss six to eight weeks. Given Pence’s injury, I will discuss what the starting lineup would be with and without him.

First, let’s discuss what the lineup would’ve been on Opening Day, assuming Pence and other Giants players were fully healthy.

Bochy is still determining whether or not he will keep the Giants’ spark plug, Angel Pagan, in the leadoff spot with the addition of Nori Aoki. Both players are extremely qualified to hit leadoff, and depending on matchups, he could always switch up which one hits first.

Both Pagan and Aoki have the ability to hit for average, get one base, and work counts. Aoki has a slightly better career on-base percentage (.353) than Pagan (.334), and Pagan has a slightly better slugging percentage for his career (.419) than Aoki (.387).

Based on this information, this is how I’d construct the lineup with Pence healthy:

1) Aoki, LF
2) Joe Panik, 2B
3) Buster Posey, C
4) Pence, RF
5) Brandon Belt, 1B
6) Casey McGehee, 3B
7) Pagan, CF
8) Brandon Crawford, SS

A couple notes on this lineup:

• As mentioned before, the lineup could easily switch to have Pagan in the leadoff spot and Aoki in the seventh or eighth spot too.
• Pagan could also be moved up to the sixth spot, with McGehee moving down to the seventh spot.

It’s an extremely close call and either decision would be fine, but it might make more sense to have Aoki hit leadoff because of his slightly better on-base percentage and ability to work counts. Pagan’s slightly higher slugging percentage and energy could still be useful near the end of the lineup.

Panik has solidified himself in the second spot because of his ability to work counts, get on base, and hit to all parts of the field.

I believe that Posey’s skills are best utilized in the third spot, which is usually reserved for the best all-around hitter on the team (which Posey is), because he’s guaranteed a plate appearance in the first inning, he can bring runners in and also set the table for the power hitters, he can hit for average, he can hit for power, and he’s just generally a versatile hitter.

Pence and Belt provide a nice one-two power punch in the cleanup and fifth spots. Although he didn’t showcase this skill last season, McGehee has the ability to hit for power, so he could hit in the sixth spot. Pagan and Crawford also can both work counts, and Pagan would add a nice spark at the end of the lineup.

Without Pence, Bochy has lots of options on how to order the lineup, and he hasn’t yet discussed what exactly he plans on doing. Assuming that Gregor Blanco will become the everyday right fielder with Pence out, here’s how I could imagine the lineup looking without Pence:

1) Aoki, LF
2) Panik, 2B
3) Posey, C
4) Belt, 1B
5) Pagan, CF
6) McGehee, 3B
7) Blanco, RF
8 )Crawford, SS

With Pence out, Posey could also move down to the fourth spot with Pagan moving to the third spot and Belt moving to the fifth spot, but as mentioned before, Posey’s skills and versatility are best utilized in the third spot. It’s also better to have Pagan’s energy later in the lineup after the power hitters than in the third spot.

Also with Pence out, it makes even more sense to have Aoki hit leadoff to maintain continuity and consistency in the lineup (if Aoki hits leadoff with Pence in the lineup as well), but also because it doesn’t really make sense to have him batting near Blanco at the bottom of the order. If Pagan were to hit leadoff, it would mean Aoki and Blanco would both hit near the bottom of the lineup, which wouldn’t be smart considering they have similar approaches at the plate.

As you can see, Bochy has plenty of options, and the starting lineup could truly change a lot based on the options but also the matchups in a given game. Too many options is an exciting problem for the Giants to have.

Next: Expectations for Lincecum in 2015