San Francisco Giants 2015 Stat Projections: Pitching
The San Francisco Giants‘ 2015 season is officially underway, so let’s start analyzing different elements of the team. Today, we’ll discuss their pitching.
As of now, the Giants’ 2015 starting rotation will be Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson, and Tim Lincecum. Hudson and Lincecum might switch spots, but the rotation will most likely look something like that.
The Giants also have more starting pitching depth in the bullpen, as they now have two long relievers in Yusmeiro Petit and Ryan Vogelsong. Petit has proven his immense value to the Giants, especially as a long reliever, because he can be a spot starter, and he can pitch five or six innings out of the bullpen, if needed.
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Most of Vogelsong’s experience has been as a starter, so the long reliever role will be somewhat of an adjustment. However, Vogelsong is the ultimate professional, so he’ll work hard to contribute and be effective as a long reliever.
As for the rest of the bullpen, Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, and Santiago Casilla have secured spots. That leaves one available roster spot in the bullpen. The Giants have several candidates for that spot, but the top two contenders are Hunter Strickland and George Kontos.
Strickland, despite mightily struggling in the 2014 postseason, would add an element to the Giants’ bullpen that no other reliever can. He can throw 100 miles per hour, and Bruce Bochy would love to have that kind of weapon in the bullpen.
However, Kontos is out of minor league options, and it’s most likely that the Giants will not want to risk putting him on waivers. Since the Giants probably don’t want another team, especially an NL West team, to pick up Kontos, they will most likely give him the final spot in the bullpen.
With all that being said, let’s take a look at some basic statistical projections for the Giants pitchers in 2015. We’ll first take a look at the Steamer projections, courtesy of Fangraphs.com:
| Name | W | L | ERA | G (GS) | IP | H | HR | SO | BB | WHIP |
| Hunter Strickland | 3 | 2 | 2.53 | 55 (0) | 55 | 44 | 3 | 62 | 16 | 1.08 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 13 | 10 | 2.92 | 32 (32) | 201 | 173 | 17 | 204 | 50 | 1.1 |
| Yusmeiro Petit | 4 | 3 | 2.82 | 35 (5) | 59 | 50 | 6 | 60 | 12 | 1.06 |
| Erik Cordier | 1 | 1 | 3.06 | 15 (0) | 15 | 11 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 1.23 |
| Cody Hall | 0 | 0 | 3.21 | 1 (0) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.22 |
| Jean Machi | 3 | 3 | 3.3 | 65 (0) | 65 | 60 | 5 | 56 | 20 | 1.22 |
| Sergio Romo | 2 | 2 | 3.06 | 35 (0) | 35 | 31 | 3 | 33 | 9 | 1.15 |
| Jeremy Affeldt | 3 | 3 | 3.28 | 55 (0) | 55 | 51 | 3 | 45 | 19 | 1.28 |
| Derek Law | 0 | 0 | 3.32 | 1 (0) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.26 |
| George Kontos | 2 | 2 | 3.25 | 40 (0) | 40 | 36 | 4 | 37 | 12 | 1.21 |
| Santiago Casilla | 3 | 3 | 3.43 | 65 (0) | 65 | 59 | 4 | 58 | 24 | 1.27 |
| Tim Lincecum | 6 | 7 | 3.93 | 40 (15) | 111 | 103 | 9 | 98 | 40 | 1.29 |
| Tim Hudson | 10 | 11 | 3.92 | 30 (30) | 182 | 191 | 14 | 118 | 42 | 1.28 |
| Javier Lopez | 2 | 2 | 3.7 | 45 (0) | 45 | 44 | 3 | 33 | 18 | 1.36 |
| Matt Cain | 10 | 10 | 3.74 | 29 (29) | 173 | 163 | 19 | 145 | 50 | 1.24 |
| Jake Peavy | 10 | 10 | 3.69 | 30 (30) | 173 | 164 | 20 | 142 | 47 | 1.23 |
| Chris Heston | 0 | 0 | 4.01 | 0 (0) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.31 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | 7 | 7 | 4.04 | 20 (20) | 115 | 113 | 12 | 90 | 36 | 1.29 |
| Ray Black | 0 | 0 | 4.09 | 1 (0) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.46 |
| Joan Gregorio | 0 | 0 | 4.76 | 0 (0) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.49 |
There are some interesting conclusions that can be drawn based on these stat projections. According to the Steamer projections…
- Bumgarner will have another 200+ inning and strikeout season.
- Bumgarner, Hudson, Peavy, and Cain will make the majority of their starts this season.
- Vogelsong will make more starts (20) than Lincecum will this season (15), but Lincecum will appear in 40 games, compared to Vogelsong’s 20 games. Petit will also make five starts.
- Casilla and Machi are tied for the most games at 65. Strickland is second on the list of games at 55.
- Kontos will appear in 20 games.
- Romo will appear in just 35 games.
- All of the Giants’ reported starters for 2015 will have ERAs below four.
- The most wins that a Giants’ starter will earn is 13, and that pitcher will be Bumgarner.
Now, let’s compare these projections to Fangraph’s “Fans” stat projections. This projection includes just 12 pitchers. Perhaps these are the 12 pitchers that the statisticians believe will make up the 12 pitcher spots on the Giants’ 25-man roster.
| Name | W | L | ERA | G (GS) | IP | H | HR | SO | BB | WHIP |
| Sergio Romo | 5 | 3 | 2.75 | 67 (0) | 67 | 53 | 6 | 72 | 13 | 0.99 |
| Hunter Strickland | 2 | 3 | 3.05 | 55 (0) | 48 | 38 | 5 | 59 | 11 | 1.02 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 16 | 10 | 2.88 | 33 (33) | 218 | 188 | 20 | 220 | 48 | 1.08 |
| Yusmeiro Petit | 6 | 5 | 3.54 | 36 (14) | 126 | 111 | 13 | 127 | 25 | 1.08 |
| Jeremy Affeldt | 4 | 2 | 2.95 | 59 (0) | 59 | 53 | 3 | 44 | 18 | 1.2 |
| Santiago Casilla | 4 | 4 | 2.58 | 59 (0) | 59 | 49 | 4 | 48 | 18 | 1.14 |
| Javier Lopez | 2 | 2 | 2.67 | 66 (3) | 52 | 48 | 3 | 41 | 18 | 1.27 |
| Tim Hudson | 10 | 9 | 3.75 | 25 (25) | 149 | 146 | 11 | 97 | 31 | 1.19 |
| Jake Peavy | 11 | 9 | 3.88 | 29 (29) | 179 | 171 | 19 | 144 | 48 | 1.22 |
| Matt Cain | 12 | 10 | 3.66 | 30 (30) | 190 | 173 | 21 | 156 | 54 | 1.19 |
| Tim Lincecum | 10 | 9 | 4.07 | 33 (24) | 160 | 150 | 17 | 146 | 60 | 1.31 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | 8 | 9 | 4.18 | 26 (18) | 135 | 134 | 15 | 104 | 41 | 1.3 |
According to the Fans projection…
- It can be assumed that the statisticians that came up with this projection believe that Strickland will earn the final bullpen spot instead of Kontos.
- Again, Bumgarner will have another 200+ inning and strikeout season.
- Bumgarner will finish the season with 16 wins, two less than he recorded in 2014.
- Again, Bumgarner, Hudson, Peavy, and Cain will make the majority of their starts this season.
- Lincecum will start (24) and appear in more games (33) than Vogelsong, who will start 18 games and appear in 26 games overall. Petit will also start 14 games.
- Lincecum will yet again finish with an ERA above four, as will Vogelsong.
- Romo will appear in the most games in 2015 at 67, followed by Lopez at 66, and Lopez will start three games, which makes no sense at all.
According to both projections, Bumgarner will have another 200+ inning and strikeout season, and he will lead the starters in number of starts, innings, ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. Both projections also indicate that the Giants’ starters will remain fairly healthy, but both Vogelsong and Petit will make at least five starts. Both projections also predict a stellar 2015 season from Strickland.
There were some differences between the stat projections for Lincecum and Vogelsong, in terms of number of games they’ll appear in and games that they will start, in addition to some differences in Romo’s stats.
What do you think of these projections? Which projection do you think is more accurate? Let us know in the comment section below.