Tim Lincecum: The Argument Against his Rotation Spot

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With pitchers and catchers reporting on Wednesday, Spring Training is officially here for the San Francisco Giants. While talking to the media, manager Bruce Bochy stated that Tim Lincecum will have a spot in the rotation, echoing a sentiment he voiced very early in the offseason. The fanbase is split, as half the people are giddy like schoolgirls, and the other half are sighing and shaking their heads.

There’s a lot of good things to say about Lincecum. He became the face of a franchise that was in desperate need of one after Barry Bonds‘ retirement and ensuing scandal. He won two Cy Young Awards in his first two full seasons, and was a leader in the team’s run to its first World Series title in 56 years. In his first five seasons as a pro, he was 69-41 with a 2.98 ERA and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

That stock market has since crashed. Anyone who owned that stock is suffering through a serious depression right now. There’s two new faces of the team, as Buster Posey‘s smiling mug and Madison Bumgarner‘s scowl have captured the hearts of Americans. Lincecum was invisible in the most recent title run, and that Cy Young form, well, we’re still searching for that. Over his last three seasons in the bigs, his record is 32-38 with a 4.76 ERA and 8.6 K/9.

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2014 was ugly. In his 26 starts, Lincecum posted a 4.67 ERA, and that’s not awful. That would make him a solid fifth starter among baseball. And there were flashes of the old Lincecum, flashes of hope somewhere inside the broken shell of Timmy we know now.

He threw his second no-hitter against the Padres on June 30th, and that started a stretch of dominance that resembled Cy Young Lincecum. Over a four-start span, he was 4-0 with a 0.30 ERA, surrendering just a single run in 30.1 innings. For a brief fortnight in the heat of the season, he was the man again.

But take that stretch away from the totals, and you see how awful 2014 really was. Minus those four dazzling starts, and Lincecum’s season ERA as a starter 5.83. That’s awful. If Juan Gutierrez or Jean Machi posted that kind of ERA, the fans would call for them to be cut so loud that Advil sales in the Bay Area would go through the roof. Luckily, their ERA never inflated that high, and neither has their contract.

Jul 30, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Tim Lincecum (55) reacts during the third inning of the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

Late in the year, Lincecum was pulled from the rotation and demoted to the bullpen. Not only was he put in the ‘pen, he stunk. In his seven relief appearances, his ERA was 5.73, just slightly better than the starter ERA minus the good Timmy.

The all-time low continued into the 2014 postseason, as the Giants made their run to a third World Series championship in just five years. What Lincecum got was worse than the Barry Zito treatment. Rather than being left off the postseason roster entirely, he was retained on the roster through each round. He was forced to sit and watch as his teammates won their way to the World Series, all without throwing a single pitch in the first two rounds.

Lincecum would make his return to the mound, in a blowout loss in game two of the World Series. Lincecum entered the game to start the seventh, with his team down five runs. He was good. He was really good. He was efficient with his pitches, he was sharp, he was himself. And then, suddenly, he wasn’t. His back tightened up, and after five consecutive outs and two punchouts, he was done, never to return to the mound in 2014.

There’s no real indication that Lincecum will succeed as a long reliever, either. The only time he’s had sustained success coming out of the bullpen is in the postseason. As a reliever in the playoffs, he’s pitched 15 innings and given up just one run, good for a 0.60 ERA. As a reliever in the regular season, he’s pitched 15 innings and given up eight earned runs, good for a 4.80 ERA. Not exactly awe-inspiring.

But who knows. Maybe this imposter Lincecum goes away, never to be heard from again. Maybe the real Big Time Timmy Jim breaks out of the broom closet he’s been tied up in for the past three years, and he can regain what made him untouchable. Everyone knows the Giants could use another ace up their sleeve, literally.

It’s hard to say what Lincecum will bring to the team in 2015. Will he find that velocity he lost? Will he be able to throw strikes once in a while? No one knows, and until we find out, his rotation spot should be anything but guaranteed.

Next: Giants Followed Familiar Pattern in Offseason