Super Bowl XLIX Preview and Prediction
Wait a second, there’s a football game? Yes, the actual Super Bowl game seems to have taken a backseat in the past few weeks. Between the Patriots and their under-inflated footballs, and Marshawn Lynch‘s status as the most entertaining man who doesn’t talk and has nice hats, the game is almost an afterthought. But the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks still have to play to decide who truly is the best team in the NFL this season.
Super Bowl XLIX (or 49, if you’re like me and still don’t understand Roman Numerals) features two teams who took radically different paths through the Championship round. The Patriots whitewashed the Indianapolis Colts 45-7, and think what you will, but deflated footballs did not make the difference in this one. The Colts inability to stop Patriots’ running back LeGarrette Blount, and their own failure to sustain any kind of offense, completely took them out of the game early, and they never had a chance to get back in it.
One week after carrying the ball just three times for a single yard against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, Blount exploded against the Colts, carrying the ball 30 times for 148 yards, and scoring thrice. All three of those totals were season highs.
The Seahawks, on the other hand, were forced to put on one of the most astonishing comebacks in NFL history, as they made up a 12-point deficit over the final four minutes of the fourth quarter before scoring the game-winning touchdown in overtime. Russell Wilson started the game in the worst possible way, but he found a way to lead his team to victory by throwing a perfect ball to Jermaine Kearse to put the stamp on their defeat of the Green Bay Packers.
Jan 18, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) throws a 2-point conversion pass in the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks defeated the Packers 28-22 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Wilson was abysmal in the first half against the Packers. He started the afternoon 1-8 passing with three interceptions, including two by safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. His team entered the half trailing 16-0. He would finish much better, competing 13 of his last 21 passes, and even though he threw his fourth interception, he completed the game-winning touchdown, as well as this improbable two-point conversion.
Running back Lynch was the true star of the game for Seattle. He rushed 25 times for 157 yards, including the touchdown that gave Seattle their first lead late in the game. His power running style was too much for the Packers to contain, and it should prove to be a challenge for the Patriots as well.
The key to the Super Bowl for Seattle will be getting off to a better start than they did against Green Bay. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers played through a calf injury, but the team played too cautiously, settling for field goals twice when stuck at the one-yard line, allowing Seattle to stay in the game. If Seattle comes out flat again, Brady and company will take advantage, as they are known for not playing cautious. They won’t settle for field goals at the one-yard line.
Wilson’s versatility as a thrower and a runner makes him extremely difficult to gameplan for. New England’s corners, Darrelle Revis and former Seahawk Brandon Browner, will have to play their best games of the season and stick with the Seattle receivers when Wilson breaks pocket and starts moving.
New England’s key will be their tight end Rob Gronkowski and the running game. The Patriots don’t have a true number one receiver, although Brandon LaFell has become a good weapon and Julian Edelman has developed into one of the best slot receivers in football. Gronkowski is the main target, and after missing big chunks of the last two years with injury, he returned to form this season, catching 82 passes for 1124 yards and 12 touchdowns.
His size and speed make him a matchup nightmare for any defense, even one as good as the Seahawks. Gronkowski is huge, standing 6-6 and weighing in at 265 pounds. He’s too big for a safety or corner, and he’s too fast for a linebacker. And even when he’s blanketed, he’s got great body control, able to contort himself and make catches that us normal humans couldn’t think of grabbing.
Jan 18, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback
Tom Brady(12) throws a pass during the third quarter against the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
The running game will also be important for New England, whether it be Blount or Jonas Gray carrying the ball. The Dallas Cowboys proved that Seattle can be beaten on the ground, as DeMarco Murray ran for 115 yards against them. A good, consistent running attack sets up play-action, and Brady can, and almost always does, take advantage of opportunities like that.
Brady will be playing in his sixth career Super Bowl, and if he wins, he will earn his fourth Super Bowl ring. That will tie him for the most all-time among quarterbacks with Hall of Famers Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana. Newly inducted Hall of Fame defensive lineman Charles Haley leads everyone with five Rings, two with the San Francisco 49ers and three with the Cowboys.
Brady owns a number of Super Bowl records, including pass completions (127), attempts (197), and yards (1277). With two touchdowns against Seattle, Brady can tie Montana for that career record. Brady has also been Super Bowl MVP twice, one of six players with that distinction. If he can earn the honor again, he will tie Montana, again, for the record with three.
Wilson is looking to win his second consecutive NFL Championship in just his third year in the league. He completed 18 of 25 attempts in the Big Game last year, for 206 yards and two touchdowns.
I asked for predictions on twitter, and I got a few interesting ones. One follower (@DudeOTD) says he feels good about Seahawks’ tight end Luke Willson winning MVP. Reading further in to that, MVP almost always goes to the winning team (47 of 48 times), so Seattle most likely is the winner in that scenario.
Another follower (@sweetscienceko) said that the Patriots would “NOT kick a [field goal] twice at the 1-yard line, get faked on a [field goal attempt]…or celebrate [with five minutes left],” inferring how Green Bay played timid and without confidence, as well as Morgan Burnett conceding with a slide at Green Bay’s 43-yard line following Wilson’s fourth interception of the game. He would also go on to predict the Patriots would walk away winners by a score of 30-26, with Gronkowski scoring the game-winner with less than two minutes in the game. An ending like that would make fantastic football.
My personal prediction is that Brady earns his fourth Super Bowl ring, as the Patriots defeat the Seahawks 34-28. Gronkowski earns MVP honors, capping his momentous return from injuries with two “Gronk-Spikes” in the endzone.
It’s hard to watch the Super Bowl, or any game for that matter when your favorite team isn’t involved. But sports fans will tune in because the spectacle of the Super Bowl is unmatched. Plus, Katy Perry performing at half-time is easy on the eyes.
If you have any predictions, let’s hear them in the comment box below!