San Francisco Giants 5th Starter: Lincecum or Vogelsong?
With the re-signing of Ryan Vogelsong, the San Francisco Giants have a quandary on their hands. Earlier in the offseason, the Giants’ front office and coaching staff announced that Tim Lincecum, the enigmatic former ace, would take the role of fifth starter in the rotation again. But with Vogelsong returning to the family, he throws his hat into the ring for the five-spot, setting up a good, old-fashioned battle between brothers.
If I posed the question “Lincecum or Vogelsong” before the 2011 season, you would probably have laughed in my face and called me some names that might have hurt my feelings. But in this day and age, that is the reality we live in. Lincecum is no longer the untouchable, Cy Young Award-winning opening day starter. Vogelsong is no longer the journeyman on a minor league deal who hasn’t pitched in the major leagues in four years.
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2011 is where it all started. This weird paradigm shift between two pitchers on radically different career paths began the year after the Giants won their first World Series in 56 years. 2011 would be Lincecum’s last season as a high-quality pitcher, and would be Vogelsong’s first.
In the three years leading up to the 2011 season, Lincecum won two Cy Young Awards, a World Series, went 49-22 with a 2.83 ERA, and struck out more hitters than any other pitcher in baseball (767). In the same time frame, Vogelsong threw exactly zero pitches from a big league mound. He spent 2008 and 2009, Lincecum’s Cy Young years, in Japan, where he was a serviceable, but not great, pitcher. He split 2010 between the Philadelphia Phillies’ and Los Angeles Angels’ Triple-A teams, going 3-8 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.773 WHIP.
Sep 19, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Tim Lincecum (55) pitches during the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
In 2011, Vogelsong returned to the Giants, the team that drafted him, and became Lincecum-esque. Not in the strikeout totals or flashiness, but in the numbers. He went 13-7 with a 2.71 ERA, becoming an All-Star for the first time, 12 years after his major league debut.
Lincecum joined Vogelsong on the 2011 All-Star squad. Despite a 13-14 record, he finished with a 2.74 ERA and 220 strikeouts, his fourth, and final, consecutive season over 200 punchouts.
Lincecum would explode over the next three seasons, and not in the good way, like how Vogelsong “exploded onto the scene” in 2011. Lincecum’s ERA exploded from 2.98 over his first five years, to 4.76 over the last three. His walks jumped from 3.3 to 3.8. While that’s not a huge increase, it was exacerbated by a drastically-falling strikeout rate. His K/9 fell from 9.9 in his first five seasons to 8.6 in the last three. He could no longer work around the free passes by striking everyone out with his devastating split-changeup.
Vogelsong, meanwhile, remained a serviceable pitcher. From 2012 to 2014, he’s posted a 26-28 record with a 4.12 ERA and 1.320 WHIP. In 2013, he dealt with a broken hand suffered on a hit-by-pitch, and missed almost three months. That year, he struggled in his first eight starts, but it seemed like he was turning it around before the injury. He pitched much better after returning, dropping his ERA by almost two full points in the last 10 games.
He continued to pitch well in 2014. The 4.00 ERA he posted would make him one of the better fifth starters in baseball. The 8-13 record isn’t pretty, but after Matt Cain went down with an injury, Vogelsong took over his role as tough-luck loser. He barely received any run support over the final two months, and his record suffered as a result.
Lincecum posted a 10-9 record as a starter in 2014, but his ERA continued to balloon, settling at 4.67 in his starts. His WHIP also inflated to 1.410. He spent most of the last two months in the bullpen.
There’s another possibility, although it does fall in the “slim chances” category. Maybe neither guy wins the job. Maybe a magical pixie visits Kyle Crick in his sleep and gives him pinpoint control of his killer stuff. In turn, he pitches out of his mind in Spring Training, and manager Bruce Bochy has no choice but to keep him in the rotation. Hey, it’s fun to dream, right?
The battle is between Vogelsong and Lincecum for the number-five starter slot. And right now, Vogelsong is wielding a bigger sword.