On Tuesday, the 2015 Major League Baseball Hall of Fame class was announced. Four players were elected, as Craig Biggio, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, and former San Francisco Giant Randy Johnson will take their place in the hallowed halls later this year with the other all-time greats. In Johnson, we have the last pitcher to win 300 games over his major league career. But, is the Big Unit the last ever to reach that milestone?
On Thursday, I posed that question to my followers on Twitter.
Serious question for my fellow baseball fans. Will we ever witness a pitcher win his 300th game again in our lives?
— sean (@seanyouidiot) January 8, 2015
The overwhelming response was that we had indeed seen the last of the dying breed, and I must admit to thinking the same thing.
There is no denying that the game today is extremely different than it was 100 years, 50 years, even 20 years ago. Today’s game is so reliant on a five-man rotation and a six, seven, even eight-man bullpens. It’s not uncommon to see starting pitchers pulled in the fifth inning with a slim lead so the manager can get a lefty-on-lefty, or another favorable matchup.
Tommy John surgery has also seen a huge boost, as 23 players with big league experience had gone under the knife between October, 2013, and October, 2014. For any player, losing an entire season is very dangerous.
In order to see what the possibility of another 300-game winner is, let’s check out the winningest active pitchers in baseball right now.
The Giants’ own right-hander Tim Hudson tops the list, as he owns 214 career victories. However, the 38-year old has already discussed his plans to retire after the 2015 season. Unless he can find the fountain of youth and stick around for another seven or eight seasons, Hudson has no chance to reach the plateau.
The second-winningest pitcher currently active is New York Yankees left-hander C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia is an interesting case, because he has 208 wins under his belt, and is just 33 years old. However, the burly southpaw struggled with knee injurues in 2014, and made just seven starts. Luckily, Sabathia was able to avoid micro-fracture surgery, which could have been career-ending.
May 10, 2014; Milwaukee, WI, USA; New York Yankees pitcher
CC Sabathia(52) pitches in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
If Sabathia can bounce back from his knee issues, he would need to average 13.1 wins over his next seven seasons, which would take him through his age-40 year. As it stands now, Sabathia seems like a long-shot, but he may also pose the most legitimate threat to breaking the 300-win barrier.
Continuing down the wins list, a lot of pitchers can be checked off. Bartolo Colon is 41 years old and owns 204 wins. Mark Buehrle has 199 wins and is 35. A.J. Burnett is 37 with 155 wins. John Lackey owns 152 wins through his age-35 season. Tied with Lackey is Justin Verlander, who may also be able to make a case for 300-wins in his future.
Verlander is 31 years old and owns 152 wins. He has pitched in the big leagues for 10 years, posting an average of 15.2 wins per season. If he can somehow keep that pace for another 10 seasons, he will end his career with 304 wins.
A lot has been said about Verlander’s decline over the past few years, as his ERA has spiked since the beginning of 2013. In 2013, he posted a 3.46 ERA while winning 13 games, and pitched to the tune of a 4.54 ERA and 15 wins in 2014. This could be attributed to wear-and-tear, as Verlander has pitched a ton of innings in his career, and pitched deep into the playoffs on multiple occasions. If Verlander can get back to being the pitcher he is used to, he may potentially stake a claim for 300 wins.
Sep 6, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher
Madison Bumgarner(40) pitches in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s move on to the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw. In his seven years, he owns 98 wins, and will only be 27 when the 2015 season begins. At the current pace, 14 wins per season, he would need to pitch for another 14 and a half years to reach 300 wins. That may seem unsustainable, but take into consideration that Kershaw won 21 games in just 27 starts in 2014. If somehow, someway, he can continue to post 21 wins a year, it would still take almost another 10 years for him to reach 300.
Among the Giants’ current pitchers, Madison Bumgarner seems like the most likely candidate to make a run at 300 wins. In about five seasons, Bumgarner has won 67 games. At just 25 years old currently, he would need to continue his pace (13.4 wins per year) for 17 and a half more seasons to have a shot at the milestone. If he could bump his average up to 16 wins (which is his average over the last three seasons), he would still need to pitch for about 15 more years.
If the numbers tell us anything, it’s that seeing another 300-game winner is highly unlikely in our lifetime. But there is always hope. I mean, the Giants weren’t supposed to win those World Series, were they?