Scott Kazmir Should Be Moved Out of Starting Pitching Role for A’s Playoff Run
The Scott Kazmir redemption story has been a fun one to watch unfold in 2014.
After spending one season with the Cleveland Indians, Kazmir joined the Oakland Athletics with a two-year deal during the offseason.
Kazmir deal with a's will be 2 years. good for him.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 2, 2013
Once the season began, Kazmir, almost instantly, became one of the best pitchers in the American League. He posted a 12-3 record with a 2.37 ERA, while holding hitters to a .215/.267/.326 slashline over the course of the first four months of the season.
Kazmir was named a 2014 AL All-Star, and had come a long way from the Sugarland Skeeters.
Then the calendar turned to August.
Kazmir has struggled since that sparkling start. He is 2-6 in his last 10 games with a 6.67 ERA and hitters are slashing .301/.359/.435 against him.
More from Oakland Athletics
- Oakland Athletics win Game 2 of Wild Card round with late-inning drama
- Oakland Athletics end perfect game, still lose Game 1 of Wild Card round
- Oakland Athletics: Jesus Luzardo will start Game 1 of Wild Card round
- Oakland Athletics clinch first AL West title since 2013
- Oakland Athletics: Can Jamb Lamb save the restructured infield?
So what’s wrong with Kazmir?
Well for starters, Kazmir’s velocity has dropped off significantly in the past month, hitting a season-low average of 89 MPH on his fastball, according to PITCHf/x data from his start against the Philadelphia Phillies. When a pitcher loses velocity on his fastball, the first thought that comes to mind is “He’s hurt.” Reports haven’t come out about an injury, so that’s not a viable reason for the velocity drop.
The more likely scenario is Kazmir is suffering from fatigue. Kazmir has thrown 183 ⅓ innings entering the final series against the Texas Rangers, which is the most Kazmir has thrown since 2007 when he tossed 206 ⅓ innings for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Another contributing factor to Kazmir’s sudden decline: teams are hitting Kazmir’s four-seam fastball and sinker at alarmingly high rates. Michael Barr of FanGraphs analyzed this trend and discovered that teams were hitting .371 against Kazmir’s four-seamer and .467 against his sinker.
Those numbers in Barr’s research came before Kazmir’s start against the Phillies, but those numbers wouldn’t have changed too dramatically given Kazmir’s final line.
Kazmir has also surrendered at least three runs in eight of his last 10 starts, and the arrow doesn’t seem to be pointing up either.
Barr writes:
"“I don’t know that this is damning, but over his last nine starts, the trend is pretty clearly headed south — and in context with his change in repertoire, the pitch he’s going to almost half the time is coming in more hittable.”"
If the A’s, and it still remains an if, make the postseason and get past the AL Wild Card game, the A’s have to consider benching Kazmir in favor of Jason Hammel.
In his last two starts against the Los Angeles Angels, the likely AL Divisional Series opponent, Kazmir allowed 13 runs (all earned) in 4 ⅓ innings of work with only one strikeout in the two outings.
The thought of Kazmir being removed from the playoff rotation in favor of Hammel would have seemed preposterous a month ago, but now it has to be considered.
Sep 12, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Oakland Athletics pitcher Jason Hammel (40) throws the ball against the Seattle Mariners during the first inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Hammel has managed to turn his season around. After going winless (0-4) with a 9.53 ERA in the first four starts with Oakland, Hammel is 2-2 with a 2.62 ERA with 37 strikeouts. Hammel’s velocity continues to remain steady, meaning his arm is live. He also has not faced the Angels at all this season.
This is where the A’s starting pitching depth can come in handy. Aside from Hammel, Drew Pomeranz can start a game, and Jesse Chavez can serve as a starter before going to a Johnny Wholestaff approach, which in the postseason would be highly unlikely. Kazmir could come out of the bullpen, but his days as a starter should be numbered.
Kazmir has been great for the Athletics and a pleasant surprise this season. Unless things change quickly, however, Kazmir’s storybook season has to come to a premature ending if the A’s want to have a happy ending of their own.