The Oakland Athletics Are All-In, So Fans Should Be Too

Nothing is going to change the fact that the Los Angeles Angels are the American League West Division Champions. Nothing is going to change the fact that the Oakland Athletics are now fighting for their playoff lives after one of the worst August performances in franchise history.

Nothing is also going change the fact that the A’s are all-in, and it’s World Series or bust.

It’s been frustrating recently.

It’s hard watching a team that at one point had the best record in baseball struggling to maintain a comfortable lead in the AL Wild Card race.

From August 2nd until September 18th, the A’s slashed a putrid .223/.294/.336, resulting in a 17-28 record and their first losing month in seemingly forever.

“Nothing is also going change the fact that the A’s are all-in and it’s World Series or bust.”

How did things get so bad?

Well, the A’s offense has become so ridiculously impotent that it’s sickening to watch.

The A’s aren’t hitting the ball well at all. Oakland’s BABIP in August was a season-worst .258 with more batted balls going into the air (43 percent flyball rate) than anywhere else.

Many will see the drop in offensive production and quickly associate it with the Yoenis Cespedes–Jon Lester trade. They’ll call to the heavens that A’s general manager Billy Beane messed with the fragile concept of team chemistry.

Team chemistry, however, cannot be quantified. You can’t put a numerical value on mental state and how trading away a power bat could affect it.

So let’s look at it from a purely statistical point.

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The A’s scored 535 runs, an average of five runs per game, in the first 107 games prior to the Cespedes deal and had a run differential of plus-161, which was 69 runs better than the next best team (coincidentally, the Angels).

Since then, the A’s saw their run differential shrink to a still Major League-best plus-151, while the Angels have increased their run differential to plus-147.

The A’s were always going to regress offensively, and while putting on my advanced statistics hat on, I’m going to explain a radical theory that I have about the Cespedes-Lester swap.

By knowing offensive regression was coming, Beane took a pre-emptive strike against it by moving a player (Cespedes), who, despite his impact on the lineup, was also prone to elongated slumps that could be a detrimental to the team in the middle of a heated playoff race.

Beane moved the volatile offensive player for a defensive player who could negate runs.

By all accounts, it has worked. Lester and the A’s pitching staff has done their part in keeping runs off the scoreboard. Unfortunately, the A’s offense hasn’t held up its share of the deal.

But there’s positives there.

Remember, the .258 BABIP and the .223/.294/.336 slash line? Those numbers will only progress back to their means.

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Nolan Writin'

The A’s season BABIP is .274, and it’s a big leap from the .258 in August. All it will take is a few bloop hits and Texas leaguers to fall for base hits to raise that number the 16 points needed to hit the season average. Combine that with a small increase in line drives, it would be the difference between scoring three runs and five runs.

Also, isn’t it strange that a team that is known for its infatuation with on-base percentage is getting on base only 29 percent of the time? That number will also likely rise, meaning more men on base and potentially more runs.

September, however, is looking quite a lot like August at the moment, but there have been some bright spots that can encourage A’s fans that things can turn around over the final week of the season.

Brandon Moss is slowly finding his swing again after belting a pair of home runs against the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. The A’s also recently beat Felix Hernandez, and could have easily taken two of the three from the Rangers, as two of the three losses can’t be pinned on lack of offense – one loss falls squarely on poor defensive play and an off Scott Kazmir night and the other was an uncharacteristic meltdown by Sean Doolittle.

I understand the last 46 games haven’t given A’s fans much hope that a change is on the horizon and frustration is boiled over.

But it’s not like there’s much of a choice.

Everyone associated with the A’s – fans, players, coaches and management – is all-in, so might as well try and find the silver lining and statistical data to provide hope.

I mean, it’s all we have left at this point.