NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers Clear Favorites to Win the Division

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Aug 11, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers outfielders Carl Crawford (25) and Yasiel Puig (66) and Andre Ethier (16) come off the field at the end of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Dodger Stadium. Dodgers won 8-2. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, I believe the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team that once found itself in last place, will win the the National League West Division. LA was once a team that was thought to be going nowhere, a team that was thought to not even be in contention for the first three spots in their division.

There was even a time when many, including myself, believed the Giants would win the NL West—before they began their downward spiral. That was at the beginning of the season, well before the All-Star Break, but things are very different now. Now the Dodgers are showing signs that they can and will beat out the other teams in the NL West to win their division.

Why do I think LA will prevail? Here’s why:

The NL West is a weak division

I’m not saying the NL West is the weakest division in baseball (that dubious distinction would go to the NL East), but it isn’t exactly the most competitive. There was a time this season when Arizona had the only winning record among all five teams. Things have gotten better for the NL West, however, but not by much.

Take the New York Yankees for example. They currently have a record of 59-57. That record puts them in fourth place in the AL East Division, arguably the most competitive in Major League Baseball, and 10 games out of first place. With the exact same record, the Yankees would be tied with Arizona for second place in the NL West.

The Dodgers don’t have a bad record though (67-50). In every other division, they’d find themselves in second place or tied for second. The other teams (not including Arizona) in the NL West, however, have records below .500. The Colorado Rockies are 55-64, the San Diego Padres are 53-64, and the San Francisco Giants are 52-65.

Aug. 11, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA: Arizona Diamondbacks batter Aaron Hill (right) is congratulated by teammates after hitting a three run home run in the third inning against the New York Mets at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks are the only competition the LA Dodgers have in the division

As I mentioned above, the Rockies, Padres, and Giants all have losing records; they are 13, 14, and 15 games out of first place respectively. With only a little over a month and a half left to play ball in the regular season, it is nearly impossible for any of these three teams to put together a big enough rally to overcome their deficit. And they would need help from the Dodgers.

Arizona, the only other team with a winning record, isn’t exactly that close to catching the Dodgers either. It is not impossible for the Diamondbacks to put some heat on the Dodgers and make for a tight divisional race, but don’t exactly count on it. As of the writing of this article, Arizona trails LA by 7.5 games.

The Dodgers are red hot

This may be the most striking stat of them all. Since the All-Star Break, the Dodgers have only lost three games, with a post-All-Star record of 20-3. One loss was to the Cincinatti Reds, another was to the New York Yankees, and the third was to the Saint Louis Cardinals, one of the top teams in baseball. LA’s streak included sweeps of the Washington Nationals, the Toronto Blue Jays, the Chicago Cubs, and even the Tampa Bay Rays, who are very much in contention for winning the AL East division.

Arizona has a harder upcoming schedule than LA

This will be trouble for the Diamondbacks and favor the Dodgers tremendously. If we look at the next two series the Diamondbacks will be playing in, we can see trouble brewing already. The first one, beginning tonight, is against the Baltimore Orioles, who are in third place in the AL East and are very much in contention to win that division. The series right after that, beginning on Friday, is even tougher.

Arizona will be playing the Pittsburgh Pirates, the team leading the NL Central division with a record of 70-45. Things will get a little easier with a series against the Cincinatti Reds, and after that, the Diamondbacks’ schedule doesn’t look so bad—except for the two series they have to play against the Dodgers.

LA will have one such difficult series against the Red Sox starting on August 23rd, but other than that, the only team that could potentially pose a problem will be the Diamondbacks.

Other factors

Even when the LA Dodgers found themselves in last place, they weren’t down and out. On May 15th, the last-place Dodgers were only 5.5 games out of first place; that’s not bad for a team that’s struggling. And struggling they were, but it was mostly due to injuries. LA had a long list of players who were disabled and were expected to miss a lot of games.

Since then, however, many guys have come off the DL. There are still guys on it: Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, and Matt Kemp to name a few. Of these three, only Billingsley is going to be on the DL for an extended amount of time—and only one other play on the DL is expected to be on it for more than 15 days.

Aug 11, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Yasiel Puig (66) takes a lead off of third base in the fourth inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

I should mention Yasiel Puig, too, since his addition provided some much needed energy for the team. He came in red hot and provided some much-need offense that got the team started in the winning direction. Since the first few weeks, Puig’s batting average has come down out of the clouds but not by much; he is still batting .376. With a player with this high of an average, there’s always a big threat of offense. Believe me, it’s no coincidence that Miguel Cabrera’s team, the Detriot Tigers, are finding themselves in first place in the AL Central.

The timing of LA’s streak is great as well. As I mentioned, there was a time when the Dodgers were in last place but only 5.5 games out of first. They did well to stick around while things weren’t going that great, then began streaking when things started looking up.

And the second half of the season was the perfect time to start a streak. Other teams in the division started dropping back, and, of course, there are less games after the All-Star Break, which means there is less of a chance for the streak to end and other teams to catch up.