Predicting the Giants Key Stat Leaders in 2013

Stolen Bases: Angel Pagan

Angel Pagan barely edged Gregor Blanco as the Giants stolen base king in 2012. Pagan compiled 29 stolen bases, while Blanco finished with 26. Blanco will likely fall short again in 2013 because he’s slotted to start the season in a platoon role with Andres Torres, which will evidently slice his theft opportunities in half.

Pagan could outdo his 2012 mark in 2013 if he avoids another lethargic start. He had an on-base percentage (OBP) of just 2.81 in his first 21 games of the regular season. Naturally, he only stole two bases during this ugly stretch.

In May when his bat finally woke up, he stole eight bases. He swiped six bases in August and six in September and October combined.

Feb. 25, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; San Francisco Giants center fielder Angel Pagan (16) dives to tag first base during the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Pagan’s inconsistency may have skewed his projected stolen base total. ZiPS forecast a 25-stolen-base season, which is a bit low. Pagan stole 37 bases in 2010 and 32 in 2011, so he clearly has the potential to exceed 30 thefts. Plus, in neither of those years did he post a higher OBP than he did in 2012.

Assuming that Pagan’s legs are starting to decline would be premature. After all, he’s only 30 years old. When approaches 33, then we can talk. But for now, it’s safe to say that he will lead the Giants in the stolen base department.

Projection: 33