Oakland Raiders Have A Clear Path To An AFC West Title In 2015
By Kevin Saito
Chances are, if you’re not part of the Oakland Raiders’ rabid and loyal fan base, you likely think their chances of winning the AFC West title and advancing to the playoffs for the first time since the 2002 season fluctuate between slim and none.
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And you wouldn’t be alone in that belief.
Media talking head types, journalists, Vegas sports books, and football fans everywhere have chimed in with their opinion that the Raiders’ chances of posting a winning season and getting to the playoffs in 2015 are about as good as the proverbial snowball in Hell.
But those odds of the Raiders claiming the AFC West title may not be as farfetched as some people continue to believe. Despite what some folks obviously think, and continue to reinforce in the media, there is actually a very clear path the the division crown for the Raiders.
This is not to suggest that it would be simple. Nor is this to suggest that it is absolutely, positively, without a doubt, going to happen. This is simply to suggest that there is a path. And that if the Raiders can play up to their own expectations, and have a few things break right for them, they conceivably could scratch and claw their way to the top of the AFC West dogpile in 2015.
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Undoubtedly, there are many out there scoffing at the mere suggestion that after more than a decade of losing, the Raiders could suddenly somehow put it all together and climb out of the AFC West cellar. But look back through the history of the NFL – stranger things have happened.
The idea that Oakland can win the AFC West in 2015 is predicated on two things – the team’s performance, and what is going on with the other teams in division.
When it comes to the team’s performance, the 2015 version of the Raiders is going to look vastly different than any team over the last twelve years. With second year QB Derek Carr under center, a tremendously improved – and highly explosive – receiving corps led by first round draft pick Amari Cooper along veterans Rod Streater and Michael Crabtree, and a tight end group that includes talented pass catcher Mychal Rivera and newcomer Clive Walford – who will add a whole different dimension as well as present nightmare matchups for defenses around the league – the Raiders are going to have a dynamic offense that can and will put some points on the board.
Dec 28, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Oakland Raiders outside linebacker Khalil Mack (52) lines up against the Denver Broncos in the fourth quarter at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos defeated the Raiders 47-14. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
The Raiders’ running game in 2015 will be head and shoulders better than last year’s version – though we realize that’s a pretty low bar to clear. But a running attack — spearheaded by Latavius Murray, a potentially rejuvenated Trent Richardson, and ever versatile and dangerous backs like Roy Helu and Marcel Reece — is going to chew up some yards and prevent defenses from sitting back and teeing off on Carr and the receivers. Simply put, the Raiders are going to have a ground game that will be an asset, will be productive, and will make Oakland’s offense multidimensional – something it was not in 2014.
On the defensive side of the ball, newcomers Curtis Lofton, Malcolm Smith, and Dan Williams, will help correct one of Oakland’s biggest deficiencies last season – shutting down the opposing offense’s ground game. A front seven of Lofton, Smith, Williams, Sio Moore, Khalil Mack, Justin Ellis, and Justin Tuck is a very formidable unit that will be incredibly tough against the run.
The one area of concern obviously, is the defensive secondary. With young corners like D.J. Hayden, Travis Carrie, and Keith McGill expected to step up and prove that they can play the position, Reggie McKenzie and Jack Del Rio are putting a lot of faith – and expectation – on players who still have a lot to learn.
That being said, solid and aggressive play from a front seven as stout as Oakland’s can help take the pressure off of a young secondary. If that defensive front can wreak havoc on the opposing offense, it will make life a lot easier for Oakland’s young corners.
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Del Rio and his coaching staff are going to make sure that the Raiders are handling their business. But to win the division title, all roads lead through Denver. Peyton Manning may be a year older, and starting to look his age, but until somebody knocks them off, they are still the kings of the AFC West.
So if the Raiders want to win the division title, they are going to have to beat the division champs.
What about the Chargers and Chiefs you might ask? Neither team has done a whole lot to upgrade themselves this offseason. San Diego has a number of new parts along the offensive line and it’s going to take some time to gel. And of course, they can’t ever hope to replace the heart and soul of that offense, losing center Nick Hardwick to retirement.
They’ve replaced Ryan Matthews with Melvin Gordon, and Eddie Royal with Stevie Johnson. But one of the biggest offensive keys for San Diego, Antonio Gates, is another year older, and is asking – but not asking – to have his number of snaps limited. Which brings us to the engine of the Chargers offense – QB Philip Rivers. At 33 years old, Rivers isn’t getting any younger. Add to that, the back injury he suffered last year, and it can be argued that his best days may be behind him. We certainly won’t know what shape that back is going to be in, or how it will affect him, until he’s in live game situations.
The Chargers, for a long number of years now, have managed to dig themselves big holes early in the season, only to use a furious rally down the stretch to find a way to eke into the playoffs. Or at least get really close. This unit won’t have that ability. Whey they dig themselves a hole early on in the season – and they will – the Bolts won’t be able to rally out of it this year.
Which brings us to the Chiefs. Unless they find a way to get Alex Smith to stop being Alex Smith – the same Alex Smith who did not complete a touchdown pass to a wide receiver in 2014 – Kansas City is already sunk. While they have some terrific pieces on the defensive side of the ball – and will be able to stay alive in some games based on that – they simply do not have an offense built to be successful. Questionable quarterback play and a mess of an offensive line. Jamaal Charles is going to have a miserable 2015 campaign simply because his line will not be able to blow open holes for him.
And not even the addition of Jeremy Maclin is going to be able to save the Kansas City offense. As talented as he is, the Chiefs will not be able to fully exploit his considerable skills – because Alex Smith is their quarterback. Unfortunately for Chiefs fans, Maclin is not going to be able to tip the scales in their favor.
And that leaves us with the Broncos. Peyton Manning turned 39 years old in March. And last season, he really started showing his age. Manning had a very un-Manning like campaign in 2014, especially down the stretch. And after another poor showing in the playoffs, may questioned whether or not Manning would even be back in 2015.
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Well, he is back, he is still 39 years old, is not getting any younger, and shouldn’t be expected to look like vintage Manning. However, he has a new head coach in Gary Kubiak, who is going to alleviate a lot of the offensive burden on Manning. Rather than a Manning-led all out aerial assault – like the type former head coach John Fox unleashed upon the league – Kubiak is going a more conservative route, and basing his offensive system around the run.
Broncos receiver Emmanuel Sanders, Manning’s second favorite target last season to the tune of 101 catches for 1,404 yards, recently spoke about the new offensive system, and sounded less than thrilled about it.
“Of course obviously it’s not going to be one of those offenses, well I’m praying that it is, but obviously it’s not going to be one of those offenses where you catch it and you’re going to have two receivers catching over 100 passes… It’s definitely different. You talk about going from a no-huddle offense to an offense that’s huddling up, to an offense that is predicated off running a football and then throwing it. It’s different.”
Which of course, plays right into Oakland’s hands. Not only does Del Rio have an intimate knowledge of the Broncos, the Raiders of course, have loaded up against the run this offseason.
The Broncos still have some weapons, there is no doubt. But the offensive system Kubiak will be running does not exploit those weapons the way Fox’s system did. And key losses like Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton, Orlando Franklin, Rahim Moore, and the recently injured Ryan Clady – expected to be out for the year with a torn ACL, dealing a bigger blow to both Manning’s protection and the running game – are going to hurt the Broncos in 2015 much more than they’re letting on.
With the way things have set up in the AFC West – and given that the Raiders improved themselves more than any other team in the division this offseason – Oakland has a very clear path to the division crown.
Of course, that path is predicated all upon potential at this point. The Raiders, given their offensive weaponry, have the potential to be a top ten offense in the NFL. And with a mixture of youth and veteran leadership, Oakland has the potential to have a top fifteen defense in the league. But players on both sides of the ball are going to have to step up and perform big.
Naysayers and doubters will undoubtedly scoff at the idea that an AFC West title could be in the cards for the Raiders this season. Most people still have them as being a couple, if not a few, seasons away from relevance.
But with explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball, a roster loaded with talent, and most importantly, a very solid, very experience coaching staff with a reputation for getting the most and best out of their players, the Raiders have a recipe for success in the palm of their hands. Right now.
Better days are indeed ahead for the Silver and Black. They have the talent, and with the expectations of so many, as low as they are, they have nothing to lose. So why couldn’t those better days start now?
The future is now for the Raiders. All they need to do is step up and seize it.
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